数字贸易标准和规则推进:全球数字贸易促进指数分析报告(2022)

Progress of Digital Trade Standards and Digital Trade Rules in International Organizaitions:Global Enabling Digital Trade Index Analysis Report(2022)

文章沿用2020年全球数字贸易促进指数的指标框架,对2022年全球74个经济体的数字贸易促进指数分项指数与人均GDP进行拟合,发现基础设施、法律安全环境和商业环境分指数的表现与各经济体的人均GDP正相关,但市场准入分指数与人均GDP的相关性并不明显。一方面,美日等发达经济体正通过RTA向部分发展中经济体传播其数字贸易规则;另一方面,即使是部分人均GDP水平较高的发达经济体(如欧盟),也并非维持高水平的数字市场准入承诺,而是酌情选择适合自身的数字贸易开放水平。同时,南非、泰国、沙特等发展中经济体的数字基础设施指数排名上升明显;日本、哈萨克斯坦和中国等因出台或修订数字贸易监管的相关立法,从而大幅提升其法律安全政策环境分指数的全球排名。文章从国际组织视角分析国际组织在推进数字贸易标准和规则制定方面的作用,由于在“数据”“人工智能”和“隐私”等领域缺乏全球共识,因而全球数字贸易标准和规则的制定将是一个缓慢的过程。从全球数字贸易的发展趋势看,数字技术特别是人工智能的广泛应用将进一步开拓数字贸易新领域。

This report follows the indicator framework of the 2020 Global Digital Trade Promotion Index and finds that the sub-indices of infrastructure,legal security environment,and business environment are positively correlated with the per capita GDP of each economy,but the correlation between the market access sub index and per capita GDP is not significant.On one hand,developed economies such as the United States and Japan are disseminating their digital trade rules to developing economies through RTA.On the other hand,even some developed economies with high per capita GDP levels(such as the EU)will not necessarily maintain a high level of digital market access commitments,they might choose an appropriate level of digital trade openness for themselves.Besides,this report finds that the digital infrastructure index rankings of developing economies such as South Africa,Thailand and Saudi Arabia have significantly increased,while Japan,Kazakhstan and China have significantly increased their global ranking in the legal security policy environment sub-index,due to the introduction or revision of relevant legislation on digital trade.This report also analyzes the role of international organizations in promoting digital trade standards and rules.It is found that due to the lack of consensus on"data","artificial intelligence"and"privacy",there is still a long way to formulate universal accepted digital trade standards or rules.Lastly,from the view of future development trend of global digital trade,this report find that the widespread application of digital technology,especially artificial intelligence,will further explore new fields of digital trade.