美国霸权护持战略的调适与中美关系的未来

The Adjustment of U.S.Hegemonic Strategy and the Future of Sino-U.S.Relations

大国竞争是物质性权力、网络性权力和观念性权力的多维博弈,在很大程度上也是各方战略反思和调适能力的比拼。相较于美国在冷战后独步天下的权势地位,当下美国霸权处于相对衰落状态。为护持霸权,美国设法对自身进行更新。拜登执政后,美国进一步深化与中国的大国竞争,在此背景下美国的霸权更新态势愈加突出,并与以投资、结盟、竞争为核心要素的美国对华战略紧密相联。拜登政府提出“新华盛顿共识”,通过实施现代产业战略增强美国的先进制造业和创新竞争力,夯实霸权的物质性权力基础。拜登政府大力构建复合盟伴体系,以议题性联盟和小多边方式提升结盟的针对性、灵活性和实效性,增进印太和欧洲两大地缘板块的联动,强化支撑美国霸权地位的网络性权力。美国的民主衰退问题侵蚀了支撑美国霸权地位的理念性权力,拜登政府力图通过维护选民投票权等方式修复民主,应对数字时代的社会不公正问题。美国的霸权更新势必给中美关系带来重大影响。同时也要看到,美国面临诸多局限性因素,而且在不同领域的霸权更新目标和举措相互矛盾。中国需以自信、审慎、精巧的方式应对长期、复杂的中美战略博弈。

The competition among major powers is a multi-dimensional game of material,network and conceptual power.It is also a contest of strategic reflection and adaptation capabilities of relevant parties.Compared with the United States'dominant position in the post-Cold War era,American hegemony is in relative decline.The United States has sought to renew itself in order to maintain its hegemony.The Biden administration has deepened its rivalry with China,in which context the U.S.hegemonic renewal has become more prominent and closely linked to U.S.strategy toward China,where investment,alliance,and competition are the core elements.The Biden administration put forward the"New Washington Consensus"that aims to strengthen advanced manufacturing and innovation competitiveness of the U.S.and to consolidate the material power base of its hegemony through the implementation of modern industrial strategy.The Biden administration has vigorously constructed a composite system of allies and partners to enhance the relevance,flexibility and effectiveness of alliances by means of issue-based and minilateralist arrangements.It also draws geopolitical linkage between the Indo-Pacific and Europe to strengthen the network power that supports the hegemonic position of the United States.The democratic backsliding has eroded the conceptual power that underpins U.S.hegemony,and the Biden administration seeks to repair democracy and respond to social injustice in the digital age by,among other things,safeguarding voting rights.The renewal of U.S.hegemony will inevitably have a significant impact on Sino-U.S.relations.It should also be recognized that the United States faces many limitations and adopts conflicting approaches for its hegemonic renewal in different areas.China needs to confront the long-term and complex Sino-U.S.strategic game in a confident,prudent and sophisticated manner.