电力现货价格预测及其应用——以西班牙市场为例

Electricity Spot Price Forecasting and Its Application——A Case Study of Spanish Market

电力现货市场的重要特征是价格随时间波动,且可再生能源占比大的市场,现货价格波动幅度更为剧烈。对于开拓海外市场的中国新能源投资企业来说,电力现货价格的波动性和不确定性是要面对的一项重要挑战。以具有代表性的西班牙电力市场为例,剖析现货电价预测的影响因素、方法论和应用方式。电力现货市场价格是电力需求和供给共同作用的结果,影响电价预测的关键因素包括电力需求、不同发电类型的发电成本、装机和发电比例以及燃料和碳价格等。现货电价预测的本质是将这些影响因素汇总到一起作为底层数据,依靠模型推演出未来特定时间的电力供需关系,进而模拟形成市场边际价格。由于全发电类型的现货预测电价并不能直接用于计算具体项目的销售收入,因此将电价预测应用到具体项目收入预测时,还应研究、预测具体发电类型捕获率的未来走势。投资商在决策过程中要理性看待电价预测的准确性和局限性,因为不同咨询机构的电价预测结果会存在差异,而且也无法预测黑天鹅事件的发生。电力投资商应充分尊重现货市场价格预测的专业性,并做好咨询机构的选聘和指导工作。

An important feature of the electricity spot market is that the price fluctuates over time,and the market with a large proportion of renewable energy has a more violent spot price fluctuation.For Chinese new energy investment companies exploring overseas markets,the volatility and uncertainty of electricity spot price is an important challenge to face.Taking the typical Spanish electricity market as an example,this paper analyzes the influencing factors,methodology and application of spot price forecasting.The spot market price of electricity is the result of the combined action of electricity demand and supply.The key factors affecting electricity price forecasting include electricity demand,generation cost for different power generation types,installed capacity and power generation proportions,and fuel and carbon prices.The essence of spot price forecasting is to sum these factors together as the underlying data,rely on the model to deduce the relationship between power supply and demand at a specific time in the future,and then simulate and form market marginal price.Since the spot forecast prices of all power generation types cannot be directly used to calculate the sales revenue of specific projects,the future trend in capture rate of specific power generation types should be studied and predicted when the electricity price forecasting is applied to the revenue forecasting of specific projects.During decision-making,investors should take a rational view of the accuracy and limitations of electricity price forecasting,because the electricity prices forecasted by different consulting institutions will be different,and it is impossible to forecast the occurrence of black swan events.Power investors should fully respect the professionalism of spot market price forecasting and do a good job in selecting and guiding the consulting agencies.