经济政策不确定性对企业投资的影响——基于省级层面民营上市公司的经验

A Study on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Enterprise Investment--Based on the Experience of Private Listed Companies at the Provincial Level

近年来,经济政策不确定性(EPU)的不断上升给企业投资带来了巨大影响。利用2010—2017年31省市民营上市公司的面板数据研究省级层面的EPU对其投资的影响,研究发现:(1)各省EPU指数与上市公司的投资支出存在显著的倒“U”型关系,即较低程度EPU的增加能促进投资,较高程度EPU的增加会抑制投资。(2)影响机制和稳健性检验均证实了实物期权渠道和金融摩擦渠道的有效性,且EPU对高固定资产占比和大规模公司的负面冲击较小。(3)主导机制识别检验表明EPU主要通过金融摩擦渠道抑制投资,且高资产流动性的公司可以规避金融摩擦渠道的负面影响。

In recent years,the rising economic policy uncertainty(EPU)has had a huge impact on corporate investment.Using the panel data of private listed companies in 31 provinces and cities from 2010 to 2017,this paper studies the impact of provincial EPU on their investment,and fi nds that:(1)there is a signifi cant inverted“U”relationship between the provincial EPU index and the investment expenditure of listed companies,that is,the increase of EPU to a lower degree can promote investment,and the increase of EPU to a higher degree will inhibit investment;(2)both the impact mechanism and the robustness test can confi rm the eff ectiveness of the physical options channels and the fi nancial friction channels,and the EPU has little negative impact on the high proportion of fi xed assets and large-scale companies;(3)the leading mechanism identifi cation test shows that the EPU mainly inhibits investment through fi nancial friction channels,and the companies with high asset liquidity can avoid the negative impact of fi nancial friction channels.