基于熵权灰色关联度分析的城市信号交叉口安全评价

交叉口在城市交通系统中具有冲突加剧、事故集中等特征,因此交叉口隐患治理是管理交叉口的常见手段,从隐患治理全过程看,合理的交叉口安全评价方法是制定有效隐患治理措施的关键环节。针对目前交叉口安全性评价理论现状,以及交叉口改造数量多与资金有限之间的矛盾等问题,本文以城市信号交叉口为例,选取冲突点面密度、冲突率、显见违法发生率、交叉角度、三角区视距、交通安全设施、交叉口渠化组织等关键影响因素并建立安全评价指标体系,基于炳权法和灰色关联度分析法,提出一种针对城市信号交叉口的安全评价方法。以无锡市6处信号交叉口为研究对象评价其安全水平,结果表明钱桥大道一钱桥大街交叉口滴权灰色关联度系数最高,钱威路一钱藕路交叉口权灰色关联度系数最低,钱威路一钱藕路交叉口应优先采取道路隐患治理、通行秩序管理等干预。该方法既完善了当前的城市信号平面交叉口安全评价理论体系,又可为决策交叉口治理次序提供参考。

Intersections are characterized by intensified conflicts and concentrated accidents in urban transportation system.Therefore,intersection hazard management is a common means to manage intersections,whereas a reasonable intersection safety evaluation method is a key link to develop effective hazard management measures from the whole process of hazard management.In view of the current status of intersection safety evaluation theory,and the contradiction between the number of intersection reconstruction and limited funds,etc.,this paper takes urban signal intersections as an example,selects key influencing factors such as conflict point surface density,conflict rate,apparent illegal occurrence rate,intersection angle,sight distance of triangle area,traffic safety facilities,intersection canalization organization and establishes a safety evaluation index system,and proposes a safety evaluation method for urban signal intersections based on entropy weight method and gray correlation degree analysis method.Six signal intersections in Wuxi City are taken as the research objects to evaluate their safety levels,and the results show that the intersection of Qianqiao Avenue-Qianqiao Street has the highest entropy-weighted gray correlation coeficient,the intersection of Qianwei Road-Qianluo Road has the lowest entropy-weighted gray correlation coeficient,and the intersection of Qianwei Road-Qianluo Road should be given priority for interventions such as road hazard management and traffic order management.The method not only improves the current theoretical system of safety evaluation of urban signal planar intersections,but also provides reference for deciding the order of intersection management.