返乡创业试点政策对县域经济增长的影响研究——基于双重差分法的实证分析

The Impact of the Pilot Policy of Returning to Hometown for Entrepreneurship on County Economic Growth:An Empirical Analysis Based on Difference-in-Differences Approach

评估返乡创业试点政策对县域经济增长的积极作用,可以为更好地推广试点地区典型经验、扩大示范效应提供现实依据。基于2011—2020年我国2099个县域的面板数据,采用双重差分法实证分析返乡创业试点政策对县域经济增长的影响,同时考察这种影响的区域异质性,并进一步借助调节效应模型探讨人口集聚水平在两者之间所起的调节作用。研究表明,无论是在总量层面还是在人均层面,返乡创业试点政策的实施均显著促进了县域经济增长,且该政策效果在我国西部地区最显著。此外,人口集聚水平在返乡创业试点政策拉动县域经济增长的过程中具有正向调节作用。据此,提出大力推广返乡创业试点经验、加强对落后地区的扶持力度、发掘人力资本的潜力等建议。

Evaluating the positive effect of the pilot policy of returning home for entrepreneurship on county economic growth can provide a realistic basis for better promoting the typical experience of the pilot area and expanding the demonstration effect.Based on the panel data of 2099 counties in China from 2011 to 2020,this paper uses the difference-in-differences approach to empirically analyze the impact of the pilot policy of returning home for entrepreneurship on county economic growth,while examining the regional heterogeneity of this impact,and further explores the moderating role of population agglomeration level between the two with the help of the moderating effect model.The results show that the implementation of the pilot policy significantly promotes county economic growth at both the aggregate and per capita levels,and the effect is most significant in the western region of China.In addition,the degree of population agglomeration has a positive regulating effect in the process of promoting county economic growth through the pilot policy of returning home for entrepreneurship.On this basis,suggestions are put forward to vigorously promote the pilot experience of returning home for entrepreneurship,strengthen support for underdeveloped areas,and tap the potential of human capital.