制造业集聚、环境规制与黄河流域经济高质量发展——基于沿黄94个城市空间效应与门槛效应的分析

Manufacturing Agglomeration,Environmental Regulation and High-Quality Economic Development in the Yellow River Basin:Based on the Spatial Effect and Threshold Effect Analysis of 94 Cities along the Yellow River

基于2011—2019年黄河流域94个地级及以上城市面板数据,借助空间杜宾模型和面板门槛模型实证检验了环境规制和制造业集聚与黄河流域经济高质量发展的关系。研究发现,制造业集聚能够显著抑制黄河流域经济高质量发展,环境规制能够显著促进黄河流域经济高质量发展且对邻地经济高质量发展存在正向空间溢出效应,制造业集聚对黄河流域经济高质量发展的影响存在环境规制门槛效应,制造业集聚对上游经济高质量发展的抑制作用较强,环境规制对上游经济高质量发展的促进作用较强,下游地区制造业集聚对经济高质量发展的环境规制门槛值较大。基于结论,提出如下政策建议:贯彻落实新发展理念,推动制造业绿色低碳化转型升级;加强区域环境规制强度,推动黄河流域经济均衡发展;充分发挥区域比较优势,提升区域间要素配置效率;培育新兴优势产业,提高流域竞争力。

Based on the panel data of 94 prefecture-level cities and above along the Yellow River basin from 2011 to 2019,the relationship between environmental regulation and manufacturing agglomeration and high-quality economic development in the Yellow River basin was empirically tested with the help of spatial Doberman model and panel threshold model.It is found that manufacturing agglomeration can significantly inhibit the high-quality economic development of the Yellow River basin.Environmental regulation can significantly promote the high-quality economic development of the Yellow River basin and has a positive spatial spillover effect on the high-quality economic development of neighboring areas.The impact of manufacturing agglomeration on the high-quality economic development of the Yellow River basin has an environmental regulation threshold effect.Manufacturing agglomeration has a strong inhibitory effect on the high-quality development of the upstream economy,and environmental regulation has a strong role in promoting the high-quality development of the upstream economy.The environmental regulation threshold for high-quality economic development caused by manufacturing agglomeration in downstream areas is relatively large.Based on the conclusion,the following policy suggestions are put forward:implement the new development concept and promote the green and low-carbon transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry;strengthen the intensity of regional environmental regulation and accelerate the balanced economic development of the Yellow River basin;give full play to regional comparative advantages and improve the efficiency of interregional factor allocation;cultivate emerging advantageous industries and advance the competitiveness of river basins.