黄河流域产业发展与生态环境的交互影响

The Interaction Between Industrial Development and Ecological Environment in the Yellow River Basin

基于黄河流域9省(区)2003—2019年相关数据,在综合评价黄河流域产业发展与生态环境的基础上,采用面板向量自回归模型探析二者之间的相互影响。从性质看,近期黄河流域产业发展对生态环境呈现正向促进作用,生态环境对产业发展仍然具有负向制约作用。从特点看,黄河流域产业发展和生态环境依赖各自惯性特征明显,流域产业发展对生态环境影响可能经历“由负转正”的过程,而生态环境对产业发展的影响具有波动性,总体表现为“由正转负”的变化过程。从程度看,黄河流域生态环境对产业发展的影响要大于产业发展对生态环境的影响。从流域内部看,黄河流域产业发展与生态环境的交互影响具有明显的差异,不同区域、不同时段产业发展与生态环境之间可能存在不同性质的交互作用。未来,流域上中下游之间应协调一致统筹谋划,着力调整全流域产业空间布局与结构,分区分类推进生态保护和治理,有效缓解产业发展与生态安全之间的矛盾,以尽快实现黄河流域高质量发展。

Based on the relevant data of 9 provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2019,this paper evaluated the industrial development and ecological environment level of the Yellow River Basin,and explored the relationship between the two by a panel vector autoregressive model.From the perspective of nature,the industrial development in the Yellow River Basin has shown a positive promoting effect on the ecological environment in recent years,while the ecological environment still has a negative restraining effect on industrial development.From the perspective of characteristics,the industrial development and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin have obvious inertia characteristics,and the impact of industrial development on the ecological environment may undergo a“negative to positive”process,while the impact of ecological environment on industrial development has volatility,and the overall performance is a“positive to negative”change process.From the perspective of degree,the impact of the ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin on industrial development is greater than the impact of industrial development on the ecological environment.From an internal perspective,there are significant differences in the interaction between industrial development and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin,and there may be different types of interactions between industrial development and ecological environment in different regions and periods of time.In the future,there should be a coordinated planning among the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the basin,focusing on adjusting the spatial layout and structure of industries throughout the basin,promoting ecological protection and governance through zoning and classification,effectively alleviating the contradiction between industrial development and ecological security,and achieving high-quality development of the basin as soon as possible.