“一带一路”倡议下的人民币国际化及影响因素研究

RMB Internationalization and Its Influencing Factors Under the Belt and Road Initiative

在全球治理体系、国际分工和世界贸易投资网络加快重塑的国际背景下,秉承人类命运共同体理念的“一带一路”倡议为有序推进人民币国际化提供了一个切实可行的路径。本文基于国际货币的交易结算职能、投资职能和储备职能构建了人民币国际化指数,采用2009—2020年21个国家货币数据,分析人民币国际化的发展动态,发现在“一带一路”倡议提出之后,人民币国际化进程在新兴国际货币及“一带一路”共建国家主要货币中表现突出。在此基础上,本文运用面板数据回归模型实证检验了人民币国际化的影响因素及“一带一路”倡议对推进人民币国际化进程的作用。研究结果表明,出口贸易、国际投资、经济规模、货币稳定性和货币惯性等因素均能推进人民币国际化进程,其中,经济规模的边际贡献最大。机制分析表明,“一带一路”倡议提升了人民币在“一带一路”共建国家的国际化水平,是促进人民币在“一带一路”共建国家实现国际化的“加速器”。本文研究有助于探寻有效推进人民币国际化的重要着力点,为推进人民币国际化进程提供理论依据。

Against the background of the accelerated reshaping of the global governance system,international division of labor,and the world trade and investment network,“orderly promotion of RMB internationalization”has become one of the important drivers to promote Chinas voice in the global economic system and achieve high-quality development.Previous research on RMB internationalization mainly focuses on policy analysis,lack of empirical data support;or uses single indicators such as settlement scale to measure currency internationalization for empirical testing,which interferes with the accurate measurement of influencing factors and transmission pathways.From the perspective of monetary function and by constructing the measurement index of currency internationalization,this paper makes a comparative analysis of the development level of RMB internationalization in the past ten years in the country and time dimensions.It is found that although the internationalization level and relative status of traditional international currencies are stable,especially after the Belt and Road Initiative was implemented,RMB internationalization is prominent in the emerging international currencies and major currencies along the Belt and Road.After discovering the dynamic process and international status of RMB internationalization,according to the important time nodes and theories,this paper sets the main factors and variables that affect RMB internationalization.Based on the data of 21 countries from 2009 to 2020,this paper examines influencing factors and the transmission mechanism of RMB internationalization.The results show that export trade,international investment,economic scale,monetary stability,and monetary inertia are all positive factors promoting RMB internationalization,with the marginal contribution of economic scale being the greatest.After the Belt and Road Initiative is implemented,with the continuous growth of Chinas share of world GDP,trade surplus,foreign direct investment(FDI),RMB exchange rate stability and monetary inertia play a particularly significant role.From the point of view of regression coefficients and standard errors,in terms of international trade and investment factors,export and FDI have great marginal contribution and significant effects,which reflect that Chinese enterprises“going out”strategy has an important and positive impact on RMB internationalization.In terms of monetary stability,domestic inflation has a greater effect on RMB internationalization relative to the exchange rate,which also reflects that the RMB has more non-speculative functions in the international market.In addition,the policy variable of the Belt and Road Initiative has become an“effective accelerator”for promoting the internationalization of the RMB,especially in the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative route.Through the construction and comparison of the currency internationalization index,this paper also responds to the current wave of“de-dollarization”.