浙江省老龄化空间格局演变及驱动机制

Spatial pattern evolution and driving mechanism of aging in Zhejiang Province

基于浙江省第六、七次人口普查数据,使用探索性空间数据分析和空间计量模型分析2010—2020年浙江省县域尺度人口老龄化的空间格局演变及其驱动机制.研究结果发现:(1)浙江省人口老龄化程度整体加深,老龄化空间格局由“团带式”转变为“团点式”,各县级单元之间老龄化存在正向空间相关性,其中低-低集聚区主要分散分布在西南部,零星分布于北部和东部,高-高集聚区主要分布在西部地区,且范围有所增大;(2)以出生率和死亡率为主的人口变化因素是影响浙江省老龄化空间格局的直接原因,教育水平、医疗资源和经济水平等地区社会经济发展差异是根本原因.因此,浙江省应从完善基础设施、优化人口政策等方面应对老龄化社会.

Based on the sixth and seventh population censuses in Zhejiang Province,this research applies Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and Spatial Econometrics Models to analyze the spatial pattern evolution of population aging and the driving mechanism at county level in Zhejiang Province from 2010 and 2020.The study achieves some findings that:1)The overall degree of population aging in Zhejiang Province has deepened,and the spatial pattern of aging has been shifted from“group-belt”to“group-point”.The spatial pattern of aging among county-level units is positively correlated,among which the low-low agglomeration areas are mainly scattered in the southwest and sporadically distributed in the north and east,while the high-high agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the west,and the scope has increased;2)Population change factors,mainly birth and death rates,are the direct causes of the spatial pattern of aging in Zhejiang Province,while regional differences in socioeconomic development such as education level,medical resources and economic level,are the underlying causes.Therefore,Zhejiang Province should respond to the advent of aging in terms of improving infrastructure and optimizing population policies.