效率目标下省域旅游业碳排放配额预测研究

Research on the Prediction of Carbon Emission Quota for Provincial Tourism Industry under Efficiency Goals

中国实现CO_(2)排放达峰目标离不开对碳排放峰值进行区域分解。为了在碳达峰目标下建立起公平、合理、可操作的旅游业碳配额分解手段,首先提出了2030年我国旅游业碳排放峰值省级分解的初步方案,并采用DEA-BCC模型对其效率值进行评价,再利用ZSG-DEA模型计算出最优分解方案。研究结果表明:在初步分解方案中,除了黑龙江和宁夏两个省区效率值达到了DEA有效之外,其他多数省区的效率值较低;依据ZSG-DEA模型的优化分解结果,广东和青海分别获得了最多和最少的旅游业碳排放配额;在优化调整后,在空间上省域旅游业碳排放配额基本表现出由西向东递增的态势;贵州、山西、陕西等地的碳减排存在较大压力;不同省份应根据自身获得的旅游业碳配额及碳减排压力采用不同的低碳旅游发展策略。

China's goal of achieving peak carbon dioxide emissions cannot be achieved without regional decomposition of carbon emission peaks.In order to establish a fair,reasonable,and operable means of decomposing tourism carbon quotas under the carbon peak target,this study first proposed a preliminary plan for the provincial decomposition of China's tourism carbon emissions peak by 2030,and evaluated its efficiency value using the DEA-BCC model.Then,the ZSG-DEA model was used to calculate the optimal decomposition plan.The research results indicate that in the preliminary decomposition plan,except for Heilongjiang and Ningxia provinces where the efficiency values reached DEA efficiency,most other provinces have lower efficiency values;According to the optimization decomposition results of the ZSG-DEA model,Guangdong and Qinghai respectively obtained the highest and lowest carbon emission quotas for the tourism industry;After optimization and adjustment,the carbon emission quota of the provincial tourism industry shows a trend of increasing from west to east in space;There is significant pressure on carbon reduction in Guizhou,Shanxi,Shaanxi,and other regions;Different provinces should adopt different low-carbon tourism development strategies based on their own tourism carbon quotas and carbon reduction pressures.