中国新能源汽车何以实现换道超车——基于新结构经济学的分析

HOW CHINA'S NEW ENERGY VEHICLE INDUSTRY ACHIEVED SUCCESSFUL DEVELOPMENT——An Analysis Based on New Structural Economics

我国新能源汽车产业在过去二十年间迅速发展,核心技术和市场规模均接近或达到国际领先水平,基本实现了“换道超车”。本文基于新结构经济学理论,分析了我国发展新能源汽车产业的潜在比较优势、不同发展阶段的主要瓶颈约束以及发展过程中相关产业政策的动态变化和相应得失,重点就我国新能源汽车产业发展成功的根源进行了解释和探讨。我国新能源汽车产业取得巨大进步的主要原因,一方面是较充分地发挥了“有效市场”的作用,通过优化市场资源配置促进了由要素禀赋结构所决定的潜在比较优势的显性化,另一方面也有赖于“有为政府”在产业的不同发展阶段因势利导地制定、调整、推行不同重点的产业政策。最后,本文从该产业案例中提炼总结了关于“换道超车型”产业的若干共性规律,进一步诠释了新结构经济学中的“有为政府”的动态阶段性与改革性内涵。

China's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly in the past two decades,and its core technology and market scale are close to the international leading level.This paper applies the New Structural Economics(NSE) theoretical framework to analyze the case of China's new energy vehicle industry.This paper analyzes the potential comparative advantages and the main bottleneck constraints at different stages of its development of this industry.Meanwhile,this paper summarizes the dynamic changes and corresponding benefits and costs of relevant industrial policies in the development process with a focus on the decisive factors behind the significant development of the new energy vehicle industry.This paper argues that the great progress of China's new energy vehicle industry is not only due to the domestic “effective market”,which facilitates the realization of the potential comparative advantage determined by the endowment structure through optimal resource allocation and market competition,but also due to the “facilitating state”,which helps formulate,adjust and implement industrial policies with different priorities at different stages of industrial development.Finally,this paper summarizes common principles of this type of leapfrogging industries and further elaborates on the connotation of the “facilitating state” in the New Structural Economics.