人口老龄化是否加剧了中国家庭的经济脆弱性?

Has the Aging Population Exacerbated the Economic Vulnerability of Chinese Households?

中国已全面进入老龄化阶段,家庭中的老年人规模缓慢上升。在此背景下,家庭经济脆弱性指标将发生何种变化?本文使用中国家庭微观调查数据分析了人口老龄化对家庭经济脆弱性的影响及内在作用机制,结果显示:老年人占比的上升将显著提升家庭的经济脆弱性,且主要通过增强流动性约束、减少风险资产持有规模两种机制产生影响。对于中青年户主家庭、低收入家庭与低社会资本家庭而言,老年人占比的上升将进一步提升家庭的经济脆弱性;而当户主具有较高的人力资本水平、子女向父母提供的代际向上转移支付和家庭照料较少以及所在区域的数字金融发展水平较高时,老龄化提升家庭经济脆弱性的效应将被削弱。本文研究结果有助于政策制定者根据老龄家庭经济脆弱性的典型特征制定更精准的帮扶政策。

China has completely entered the aging stage,and the elder population has slowly increased.As an important component of household welfare,vulnerability can reflect household welfare by combining inequality(poverty)with volatility of household consumption.So,what impact will aging produce on household economic vulnerability?This paper uses the microdata from the Chinese Family Panel Survey(CFPS)to discuss the effect of aging on household economic vulnerability and the internal mechanism,by using Pooled Regression and Two-Stage Least Square.The results show that the proportion of the elderly has a significant positive impact on the household economic vulnerability,and the economic vulnerability is mainly affected by two mechanisms:increasing liquidity constraints and reducing the holding of risky assets.Based on the regression of the vulnerability sub-indices,the magnification effect of aging on household economic vulnerability is mainly achieved by increasing the poverty risk.The heterogeneity results indicate that aging have a more pronounced adverse effect on the vulnerability in younger-householder,lower-income and lower-social-capital households.Further research indicates that when the householder has higher human capital,provides parents with higher intergenerational downward transfer payments and family care,and resides in regions with higher level of digital financial inclusion,aging will produce less vulner ability.The findings will help policymakers pay more attention to the elderly and their vulnerabilities,and formulate more specific assistance policies.