海上丝绸之路港口网络的层次结构及其时空演变分析

Hierarchical structure and its spatial and temporal evolution of the Maritime Silk Road ports network

基于UNCTAD发布的班轮双边运输连通性指数和港口运输联通性指数,分别构建以国家/地区和港口为节点的复杂网络,分析海上丝绸之路港口网络的层次结构及其时空演变,研究发现:(1)港口网络形成以中国、东南亚、东北亚、欧洲为中心的格局,整体呈现小世界性,符合“核心-边缘”理论;(2)在层次结构方面,当以国家/地区为节点时,可分为核心区、半核心区、半边缘区和边缘区四类,当以港口为节点时,可分为枢纽港、半枢纽港、干线港和支线港四类;(3)在港口网络时空演变方面,124个港口形成的八个子网络中,中国、东南亚、欧洲、北非、撒哈拉以南非洲子网络与整体一致,呈现分散化、均衡化趋势,南亚、西亚子网络处于波动调整阶段,东北亚子网出现集聚化趋势,并且各港口子网络的空间自相关性较强,中国、东北亚、东南亚的核心地位得到巩固;(4)港口网络演变受到港口合作机制、港口政策与战略、港口技术、枢纽港规模效应和极化效应等影响。该研究为推动海上互联互通、开展港口合作、优化班轮航线布局提供理论依据。

Based on Liner Shipping Bilateral Connectivity Index and Port Liner Shipping Connectivity Index developed by UNCTAD,this paper constructs complex network with countries/regions and ports as nodes respectively,explores the hierarchical structure and its spatial and temporal evolution of the Maritime Silk Road ports network.The results show that:(1)The ports network forms a pattern centered on China,Southeast Asia,Northeast Asia,Europe,and presents a small world as whole,which consistent with the"core-edge"theory;(2)In terms of the hierarchy of the ports network,when countries/regions are used as nodes,they can be divided into four categories:core,semi-core,semi-fringe and fringe;when ports are used as nodes,they can be divided into four categories:core ports,semi-core ports,trunk ports and feeder ports;(3)In terms of spatial and temporal evolution of port networks,among the eight sub-networks formed by 124 ports,the sub-networks of China,Southeast Asia,Europe,North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa are consistent with the whole,showing a trend of decentralization and equalization.The sub-networks of South Asia and West Asia are in the fluctuating stage,and the sub-networks of Northeast Asia show a trend of clustering,and the spatial auto-correlation of each port sub-network is strong.The core status of China,Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia have been consolidated;(4)The evolution of network is influenced by cooperation mechanisms,policies and strategies,technological progress,the scale effect and polarization effects of ports.These conclusions provide theoretical basis for China to promote the MSR interconnection,ports cooperation and rational layout of liner shipping routes.