流动人口再流动的空间选择特征及影响因素

Migrants'spatial choice in onward migration:Features and mechanisms

基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据,刻画中国城市流动人口再流动的轨迹与网络特征,并借助嵌套Lo-git模型探究流动人口在再次流动时空间选择的影响因素。研究发现:①再流动样本大多于首次流动后的10 a内发生第二次流动,并缩小流动范围;再次流动时多数已婚且家庭化流动趋势明显;两次流动过程的跨等级流动路径不会始终向上而呈现出多样化的选择结果。②首次流动网络格局呈现出明显的重心偏东、偏南的十字菱形结构,而再次流动时横向联系变弱,城市流向相对变少。③个体和城市因素对再次流入地的选择产生影响,其中工资水平的影响力最大,其次是个人特征,再是其他城市经济属性和生活品质变量。

The number and direction of China's population movements have changed substantially in the last few decades,which caused constant spatial restructuring.Migration is often a multi-stage process that migrants that migrantes may continue an onward migration after their fiyst spatial movement.However,existing studies have paid little attention to such dynamic processes.To fill this research gap,this paper analyzes the dynamic trajectory of migration and the network features of the spatial pattern,and further explores the influencing factors of the spatial choice of the onward migration by using social network analysis and the nested Logit model.The main findings are as followings:1)The onward migration often occurs within ten years after the primary migration,with a decreasing migration distance.The majority of these onward migrants are married and tend to mirgate with family when they move again.It is also important to note that the onward migration does not always involve movement from cities in a lower hierarchy to a higher one,but presenting diversified patterns;2)The primary migration network shows a very obvious cross-shaped diamond structure with the cen-ter of gravity to the east and south,while in the onward migration,the horizontal linkage becomes weaker,showing fewer pair cities with flows;3)Spatial choices of onward migration are influenced by both individual and urban factors,among which the average wage in the destination city has the most significant influence,fol-lowed by individual characteristics and other urban factors.The higher the education level,the higher the ad-ministrative rank of migrants'place of origin,and the younger the onward migrants are in occupations requir-ing higher professional and technical knowledge and within the working age,the more they tend to flow to a Tier-one city.Based on the above empirical findings,the study further proposes relevant recommendations for different types of cities considering the characteristics of migration process:First,the cities with strong popula-tion attractiveness should actively improve facilities,public service conditions and enhance governance to in-crease the carrying capacity of the population.Second,different cities should be clear about the differences between themselves and other popular cities where the migrants tend to move.Given that migrants are more likely to choose destinations within the urban cluster in onward migration,the cities belonging to the cluster should utilize the population spillover effect of the core cities.They should actively adjust the industrial struc-ture to promote the development of industries with obvious income pulling effect,strengthen the comprehens-ive urban governance capacity,and create ample urban amenities to attract the population.In view of the vis-ible trend of family migration,cities should introduce corresponding policies in public services.