经济赶超、产业数字化与绿色发展——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

Economic Catching-up, Industrial Digitalization and Green Development:An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data in China

高质量绿色发展是全面实现建设社会主义现代化强国的内在要求,经济赶超和产业数字化是影响绿色发展的重要因素。基于2012—2021年中国省际面板数据,根据新经济增长理论与复合生态系统理论构建以经济、社会和生态系统为核心的绿色发展质量评价指标体系,并运用核密度估计方法对其时空分布特征及演变趋势进行分析;在此基础上采用空间杜宾模型,从产业数字化视角深入探究经济赶超行为对区域绿色发展水平的影响。结果表明:(1)整体上中国绿色发展水平在不断提升,但存在较大的区域差异;(2)经济赶超行为对“本地-邻地”绿色发展的影响呈非线性关系,到达一定水平会形成天花板效应压缩其提升空间;(3)产业数字化与“本地-邻地”绿色发展水平的影响为非线性,较高或较低的产业数字化水平均不利于区域绿色发展水平的提升;(4)经济赶超与产业数字化的交互项对本地绿色发展具有正向作用,但对邻近地区绿色发展具有负向作用。因此,应当进一步完善政府官员考核激励机制,发挥经济赶超和产业数字化对本地绿色发展的互补作用,同时打破行政壁垒,推动地区间形成绿色发展战略的联动机制。

High-quality green development is the internal requirement of building a socialist modern power in an all-round way.Economic catching-up and industrial digitalization are important factors affecting green development.Based on the inter-provincial panel data of China from 2012 to 2021,the new economic growth theory and composite ecosystem theory are used to construct the green development quality evaluation index system with the economic,social and ecological system as the core,and the kernel density estimation method is used to analyze its space-time distribution characteristics and evolution trend.On this basis,the spatial Dubin model is used to explore the impact of economic catching-up on the regional green development level from the perspective of industrial digitalization.The research results show that:(1)the overall level of green development in China is constantly improving,with significant regional differences;(2)The impact of economic catching-up on the“local-neighborhood”green development is non-linear,while a ceiling effect will be formed to compress its space for improvement after reaching a certain level;(3)The impact of industrial digitalization on the“local-neighborhood”green development level is non-linear,the higher or lower level of which is not conducive to the promotion of regional green development level;(4)The interaction between economic catching-up and industrial digitalization has a positive effect on local green development,but a negative one on the green development of neighboring areas.Therefore,we should improve the assessment and incentive mechanism for government officials,giving full play to the complementary role of economic catching-up and industrial digitalization in local green development,and breaking administrative barriers to promote the formation of a linkage mechanism for green development strategies among regions.