中国粮食生产与农民收入动态关系的计量研究

Quantitative study on the dynamic relationship between grain production and farmers'income in China

粮食生产与农民收入有着密切的联系,研究两者之间的关系对于国家政策制定和发展有着重要的意义。针对中国1978—2022年农民收入与粮食生产数据,通过相关分析初步解释粮食产量与农民收入的关系,运用协整分析及其误差修正模型探究农民收入与粮食生产的长期和短期关系,利用Granger因果检验判识农民收入与粮食生产的因果关系,最后采用脉冲响应函数、方差分解研究粮食产量与农民收入随时间的动态演化关系。结果表明:①粮食产量虽与农民收入呈正相关,但粮食产量的提升并不会导致农民增收,而农民收入提升会导致粮食产量提升;②农民收入与粮食生产既存在长期关系,也存在短期波动;③粮食生产对农民收入无显著影响,但农民收入对粮食生产有长期的正向影响;④农民收入主要来自自身因素影响,而粮食生产在前期由自身主导,在第4期后由农民收入主导。为此,从农户、政策、技术、国外经验等方面为中国粮食和农民收入实现“双增长”提出建议,以期为中国粮食安全及“三农”问题的改善提供科学的参考依据。

The production of grain is closely related to farmers'income,and the study of the relationship between the two is of great significance for national policy formulation and development.Based on the data on farmers'income and food production in China from 1978 to 2022,this passage used correlation analysis to explain the relationship between food production and farmers'income,utilized co-integration analysis and error correction models to explore the long-term and short-term relationship between farmers'income and food production,exploited Granger causality test to identify the causal relationship between farmers'income and food production,and adopted impulse response functions and variance decomposition to study the dynamic evolution of food production and farmers'income over time.The results showed that:①Granger causality test indicated that although there was a positive correlation between food production and farmers'income,increasing food production did not necessarily lead to an increase in farmers'income,but an increase in farmers'income could lead to an increase in food production;②co-integration analysis showed that there was both a long-term relationship and short-term fluctuations between farmers'income and food production;③impulse response function results showed that food production had no significant impact on farmers'income,but farmers'income had a long-term positive impact on food production;and④variance decomposition results showed that farmers'income mainly comes from internal factors,while food production was dominated by itself in the early stage,and was dominated by farmers'income after the fourth period.Therefore,this passage provided suggestions from the perspectives of farmers,policies,technology,and foreign experience to achieve"double growth"of China's food and farmers'income,in order to provide a scientific reference for improving China's food security and the issues concerning agriculture,countrysid e,and farmers.