高质量发展视域下养殖户生猪价格与盈利动态博弈研究——以河南灵宝市豫灵镇A个体户为例

Study on Dynamic Game between Pig Price and Profit of Farmers from the Perspective of High-quality Development——A Case Study of a Self-employed Farmer in Yuling Town,Lingbao City,Henan Province

2018至2021年,生猪价格起伏剧烈,养殖行业陷入高质量发展困难的窘境,个体户在经营过程中面临生猪价格与盈利动态博弈难题。以河南生猪养殖个体户为分析对象,从高质量发展视域下的利润形成、利润质量、利润结构三个视角,评价养殖散户的现金周转、获利和营业利润增长等能力。基于动态博弈理论,通过实地考察,分析国家政策、“猪周期”规律、资金、成本及疫情防控等因素,提出解决措施。研究结论对养殖户生猪价格与盈利质量的动态博弈具有指导意义。

From 2018 to 2021,the price of live pig fluctuates sharply,the breeding industry is in the predicament of high quality development difficulty,and the individual household faces the problem of dynamic game between the price of live pig and profit in the course of management.Based on the analysis of the individual pig farmers in Henan province,this paper analyzes the profit formation,profit quality and profit structure from the perspective of high-quality development,and evaluates the cash flow capacity,profitability and operating profit growth of individual farmers.On the basis of the dynamic game theory,this paper analyzes the national policy,the law of“Pig Cycle”,capital,cost,epidemic prevention and control,and puts forward some countermeasures.The conclusion of this study has guiding significance for the dynamic game between pig price and profit quality of farmers.