基于问卷调查的居民家庭可控负荷统计分析

Statistical analysis of household controllable load based on questionnaire survey

针对现阶段精确到单个居民可控负荷的大量数据,多来源于国外,不适用国内居民可控负荷参与需求响应的问题,通过问卷调查的方式统计了国内某小区居民可控负荷,分析了其用于削峰及提高风电和光伏消纳水平的可行性及潜力。首先基于客观、易于回答等原则设计了居民可控负荷调查问卷,发布后收集到有效答卷466份。而后利用问卷调查数据质量综合评价体系对统计所得问卷进行了评估。基于评估所得结果,利用Python对评价等级为良好以上的问卷信息进行了量化处理,采用自下向上的分层建模思路,结合居民可控负荷数学模型,计算了居民可控负荷的需求响应潜力。最后通过对比各类居民可控负荷的需求响应潜力,可知国内可参加需求响应的居民可控负荷有空调、电热水器、洗衣机等;将居民可控负荷曲线与风电、光伏发电典型出力对比,可知居民可控负荷具备提高光伏发电和风电消纳水平的潜力。

In view of the fact that a large number of data that are accurate to single household controllable load at this stage are mostly from abroad and are not suitable for domestic residents to par-ticipate in demand response,household controllable loads in a resi-dential area in China by questionnaire survey is counted,and feasi-bility and potential for peak shaving and improving the consumption level of wind power and photovoltaic are analyzed.Firstly,based on the principle of being objective and easy to answer,the household controllable load questionnaire is designed,and 466 valid answers are collected after publication.Then the questionnaire survey data quality comprehensive evaluation system is used to evaluate the sta-tistical questionnaire.Based on the evaluation results,Python is used to quantify the questionnaire information with good evaluation level and above,and the demand response potential of household controllable load is calculated by using the bottom-up hierarchical modeling idea and combining with the mathematical model of house-hold controllable load.Finally,by comparing the demand response potential of various types of controllable loads of residents,it is known that household controllable loads in China can participate in demand response are air conditioning,electric water heaters,wash-ing machines,etc.By comparing household controllable load curve with the typical output of wind power and photovoltaic power genera-tion,it can be seen that household controllable load has the poten-tial to improve the consumption level of photovoltaic power genera-tion and wind power.