三孩政策下未来中长期我国托幼服务供需关系分析

The Supply and Demand of Early Childhood Education and Care Public Service in the Medium and Long Term under the Three-child Policy

基于“七普”数据,运用经典队列要素法,对我国学龄前人口规模作出预测,在此基础上结合入园(托)率和师幼比指标,从学位和师资两方面对我国托幼服务需求规模与供需关系的中长期变化趋势作出预测性分析。中等水平预测结果显示:2022—2050年我国幼儿园学位及师资长期处于供过于求的状态。2024—2050年期间各年份幼儿园学位富余量均在千万以上,其中3/5年份的学位富余量超过1500万个。2023—2050年期间各年份幼儿园教职工富余人数、2025—2037年期间各年份专任教师富余人数均在百万以上。2022—2050年我国托育机构托位及保育人员则持续供不应求,3/5以上年份的托位缺口在500万个以上。托育机构保育人员缺口由2022年的10万人逐年递增至2045—2046年期间的峰值145万人。建议科学统筹规划托幼服务资源,利用幼儿园富余学位提供面向3岁以下特别是2岁幼儿的托育服务,提高托幼资源配置效率;审慎拟定幼儿园师资培养计划,合理扩充托育机构师资规模。

Based on the Seventh National Population Census data,the scale of preschool population is predicted by using Cohort Component Method(CCM).Combined with the different levels of enrollment rate and teacher-child ratio,supply and demand of enrollment and teacher scales of early childhood education and care(ECEC)public service are estimated for the period 2022-2050 under the three-child policy.The middle-level prediction results show that:1)Enrollment and teacher scales of kindergarten will be in a state of“oversupply”for a long time in the period 2022-2050.The surplus of kindergarten enrollment scale will be more than 10 million from 2024 to 2050,of which the surplus will exceed 15 million in 3/5 of these years.The surplus of staffs during 2023-2050 and professional teachers during 2025-2037 of kindergarten will be over one million.2)Enrollment and caregivers scales of nursery institution will continue to be in a state of shortage in the period 2022-2050.The gap between supply and demand of enrollment scale of nursery institution will be over 5 million during 2033-2050,and the shortage of caregivers in nursery institutions will increase year by year from 0.1 million in 2022 to a peak of 1.45 million during 2045-2046.It is recommended to make a scientific overall planning of ECEC public service,and use the surplus resources in kindergartens to provide childcare services for children under the age of 3,especially 2-year-old,so as to improve the efficiency of the allocation of ECEC resources.Kindergarten teachers’training plans should be drawn up carefully,and the number of caregivers in nursery institutions should be reasonably increased.