基于N-K模型的铁路运营事故风险耦合性分析

A risk coupling analysis of railway operation accident based on the N-K model

为有效预防和减少铁路运营事故发生,文章以事故发生的组织性前提、物质性前提、触发条件这3类风险源为建模基础,先构建N-K模型找寻各风险因素相互耦合的规律,再建立系统动力学仿真模型对各风险因素的动态耦合机理进行模拟仿真,对3类风险源中各风险因素耦合的危险程度进行量化。研究结果表明:在铁路运营事故的3类风险源中,各风险源导致事故发生的风险水平与参与耦合的风险因素数量呈正相关,并且在降低关键风险因素组合的耦合值时会引起系统风险耦合水平总值大幅度下降。因此,在关注3类风险源如何形成时,还需了解风险因素耦合的动态过程,掌握风险因素间的关键耦合方式,制定相应的预防机制,减少事故发生。

To effectively prevent and mitigate railway operation accidents,this article employs a modeling approach based on three types of risk sources,namely organizational premises,material premises,and triggering conditions.Firstly,an N-K model is created to identify the regular cross-coupling patterns of various risk factors.Then,a system dynamics simulation model is established to simulate the dynamic coupling mechanism of each risk factor,quantifying the degree of risk associated with the coupling of each risk factor in the three types of risk sources.The research results indicate that among the three types of risk sources of railway operation accidents,the risk level caused by each risk source is positively correlated with the number of risk factors involved in the coupling.This suggests that reducing the coupling value of key risk factor combinations would cause a significant decrease in the total value of system risk coupling levels.Therefore,when addressing the formation of these three risk sources,it is also necessary to understand the dynamic process of risk factor coupling,identify the key coupling patterns between risk factors,and establish corresponding prevention mechanisms,so as to reduce the occurrence of accidents.