人口年龄结构对城镇家庭住房债务的影响

The Influence of Population Age Structure on Housing Debt of Urban Households in China

基于2017年家庭金融调查数据,运用Probit和Tobit模型从微观层面就生命周期、年龄结构对我国城镇家庭住房债务的影响进行实证分析。研究发现:随着户主年龄的增加,家庭持有住房债务的概率呈现倒“U”形分布,其中最有可能承担住房负债的年龄段为26~35岁。家庭少儿人口比提高不仅会增加家庭持有住房债务的概率,还会提高房贷杠杆率,而老年人口比的作用则相反。同时,本研究还验证了风险厌恶这一渠道。从区分自住房和投资房的研究来看,家庭人口年龄结构主要影响自住房债务决策,而对投资房债务决策的影响相对较小。

Based on the data of China household finance survey in 2017,this paper uses Probit and Tobit models to empirically analyze the impact of life cycle and age structure on the housing debt of urban households in China from a micro level.The study found that with the increase of the age of the head of the household,the probability of the household holding the housing debt and the mortgage leverage ratio presented an inverted “U” distribution.The age group most likely to bear housing liabilities was 26-35 years old.An increase in the proportion of the elderly in family would reduce the probability of households taking up housing debt and the mortgage leverage ratio.And this paper verifies the influence channel of risk preference.From the research of distinguishing self-owned housing from investment housing,the age structure of family population mainly affects the decision of self owned housing debt.And the marginal effects of the ratio of children to the elderly population on investment housing debt and leverage ratio are relatively small.