生产性服务业集聚对我国制造业出口技术复杂度的影响——基于2003-2018年省级面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of Productive Service Agglomeration on the Manufacturing Export Sophistication in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data from 2003 to 2018

基于2003—2018年我国30个省份的统计数据,探讨生产性服务业集聚对制造业出口技术复杂度的影响。研究发现:首先,生产性服务业集聚能够显著促进我国制造业出口技术复杂度的提升,并且这种促进效应在分行业分地区层面都成立;其次,高技术生产性服务业集聚的促进效果高于低技术生产性服务业,中西部地区生产性服务业集聚对制造业出口技术复杂度的促进效果大于东部地区和全国;最后,金融危机和税收冲击都不会改变集聚对出口技术复杂度的提升效果,但国内的经济下行压力会抑制生产性服务业集聚的正向效应。此外,生产性服务业集聚的1—5阶滞后项都可以显著促进制造业出口技术复杂度的提升。应积极引导生产性服务业适当集聚,特别是在中西部地区集聚,同时推动鼓励生产性服务业和制造业的交流与合作,使生产性服务业集聚更好地发挥促进制造业出口技术复杂度提升的功能。

Based on the statistics of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2018,this paper discusses the influence of producer services agglomeration on manufacturing export sophistication in China.The conclusions are as follows.First of all,producer services agglomeration can significantly promote the improvement of China’s manufacturing export sophistication,and this promotion effect can be found in different industries and regions.Secondly,the promotion effect of high-tech producer services agglomeration is higher than that of low-technology producer services agglomeration.The promotion effect of producer services agglomeration in the central and western regions on manufacturing export sophistication is greater than that in the eastern region and the whole country.Finally,neither the financial crisis nor the tax impact will change the effect of agglomeration on the manufacturing export sophistication,but the downward pressure of the domestic economy will restrain the positive effect of producer services agglomeration.In addition,the 1-5 order lag term of producer services agglomeration can significantly promote the improvement of manufacturing export sophistication.Therefore,it is necessary to actively guide producer services to gather appropriately,especially in the central and western regions,and encourage the exchange and cooperation between producer services and the manufacturing industry,so that the producer services agglomeration can better play its role in promoting the improvement of manufacturing export sophistication.