“双碳”目标下农业碳排放强度的测度评价及其区域差异研究

Research on Measurement and Evaluation of Agricultural Carbon Emission Intensity and Regional Differences under the“Dual Carbon”Target

实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标是全球应对气候变化的积极之举,更是推动中国经济由传统高碳型向低碳型转变的重大举措。本文使用2012—2021年中国31个省份的农业碳排放数据,对其农业碳排放强度进行测度评价,并使用Dagum基尼系数及其分解法测算各经济区域碳排放强度的差异情况。研究发现:全国以及各区域之间的碳排放强度整体上呈现下降的趋势,各大经济区域碳排放强度呈现出“东低西高”的空间格局;从区域内差异来看,西部地区碳排放强度基尼系数高于全国平均水平,内部不均衡程度较高。从区域间差异来看,四大经济区域之间的碳排放强度差异有逐步扩大的趋势,尤其是东北地区和东部地区两区域之间的基尼系数增幅效果最为明显,年均增幅达3.9%左右,进而提出采用有机农业、精准农业等可持续农业实践、推动西部地区农业的绿色化和生态化发展、加强各经济区域之间的农业技术交流和合作等建议。

Achieving the goal of“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”is a positive move in the global combat to climate change,as well as a major measure to promote the transition of Chinese economy from traditional high carbon to low carbon.This paper used the agricultural carbon emission data of 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021 to measure and evaluate their agricultural carbon emission intensities,and used the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method to calculate the differences of carbon emission intensities in the economic regions.Research found that the overall carbon emission intensities across the country and among the regions had decreasing trends.The carbon emission intensities of major economic regions showed spatial patterns of“low in the east and high in the west”.From the perspective of internal differences,the Gini coefficient of carbon emission intensity in the western region was higher than the national average,with high internal imbalance.In terms of differences between regions,the differences in carbon emission intensities between the four major economic regions were gradually expanding.The growth effects of Gini coefficient between the northeast and eastern regions were the most pronounced,with around 3.9%average annual growth.Based on these,suggestions were proposed to adopt sustainable agricultural practices such as organic agriculture and precision agriculture,to promote green and ecological development of agriculture in the western region,and strengthen agricultural technology exchange and cooperation among various economic regions.