重庆市某城区2013-2020年大气细颗粒物与居民死亡风险的时间序列分析

Time series analysis of fine particulate matter and death risk among residents in an urban area of Chongqing City in 2013-2020

目的探讨重庆市某城区细颗粒物(fine particulate matter,PM_(2.5))浓度对居民死亡风险的影响。方法收集该城区2013—2020年的日均PM_(2.5)浓度、气象因素(气温、相对湿度)以及死亡人数,运用广义相加模型进行关联性分析,并对性别和年龄进行分层分析。结果该城区2013—2020年大气PM_(2.5)浓度中位数为44.00μg/m^(3),非意外死亡人数48089例、循环系统疾病死亡人数19252例、呼吸系统疾病死亡人数8753例。大气PM_(2.5)浓度呈现冬春季节高的特征,但死亡人数没有明显的季节变化趋势。时间序列分析结果显示,PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),居民非意外死亡(lag03)、循环系统疾病死亡(lag3)和呼吸系统疾病死亡(lag03)的风险分别增加0.64%(95%CI 0.07%~1.21%)、0.68%(95%CI 0.05%~1.32%)和1.72%(95%CI 0.54%~2.90%)。调整气态污染物PM_(10)、NO_(2)、O_(3)、SO_(2)和CO以后,PM_(2.5)浓度对居民健康的影响未发生显著变化。性别和年龄分层分析结果显示,PM_(2.5)浓度升高时,女性和≥65岁的居民非意外死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡风险高于男性和5~64岁居民,但差异无统计学意义。结论重庆市该城区PM_(2.5)污染可能会增加居民的死亡风险。

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects of the concentration of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))on the risk of death among residents in an urban area of Chongqing,China.METHODS Daily data on mean PM_(2.5)concentration,meteorological factors(air temperature and relative humidity),and the number of deaths from 2013 to 2020 in this urban area were collected.A generalized additive model was used to analyze the association of PM_(2.5)concentration with the number of deaths,and stratified analyses by sex and age were further performed.RESULTS In this area from 2013 to 2020,the median concentration of atmospheric ambient PM_(2.5)was 44.00μg/m^(3);48089 nonaccidental deaths,19252 deaths from circulatory diseases,and 8753 deaths from respiratory diseases were reported.The PM_(2.5)concentration was higher in winter and spring.The number of deaths showed no obvious seasonal changes.The time series analysis showed that for every 10μg/m^(3)increase in the PM_(2.5)concentration,the risks of non-accidental death(lag03),circulatory diseases-caused death(lag3),and respiratory diseases-caused death(lag03)increased by 0.64%(95%CI 0.07%-1.21%),0.68%(95%CI 0.05%-1.32%)and 1.72%(95%CI 0.54%-2.90%),respectively.After adjusting for several gaseous pollutants(PM_(10),NO_(2),O_(3),SO_(2)and CO),the impact of PM_(2.5)concentration on residents’health had no significant changes.The stratified analyses by sex and age showed that when the PM_(2.5)concentration increased,the risks of non-accidental death and death from respiratory diseases were higher in women and residents aged≥65 years than in men and higher in residents aged≥65 years than in those aged 5-64 years,but there were no significant differences between the groups.CONCLUSION PM_(2.5)pollution may increase the risk of death for residents in this urban area in Chongqing.