城镇化如何影响市场潜能?——基于时空双固定的SPDM与PTR模型的实证分析

How Does Urbanization Affect Market Potential?——An Empirical Analysis of SPDM and PTR Models Based on Spatiotemporal Dual Fixation

城镇化从消费结构调整、产业结构优化配置、资本投入支持等方面对城市市场潜能的提升作用日益凸显,但在空间维度中,城镇化对市场潜能的影响仍存在多个问题需深入探讨。本文以长三角区域2010—2020年31个地级及以上城市的面板数据探讨城镇化和市场潜能的非线性影响机制。研究发现:三类城镇化对市场潜能存在明显的空间溢出效应,且表现出明显的空间衰减特征,在各自有效的公里范围内呈现出高正向空间外溢逐渐降低为低空间溢出;在城镇化、产业结构优化水平、消费水平与投资扩展水平四种机制调节下,城镇化以“梯度式”增强的特征影响城市的市场潜能,而在产业结构优化水平下的产业合理化机制介入过程中,城镇化对市场潜能的影响却是一个“先增后减”的作用过程;在分类检验下,发现特大城市和大城市获得了更多城镇化进程的市场规模和潜能的增进效益,而中等城市获益较小。需要关注的是小城市在城镇化高速发展下,出现了市场潜能被削弱的影响。

The role of urbanization in enhancing the potential of urban markets is increasingly prominent in terms of consumption structure adjustment,industrial structure optimization and allocation,and capital investment support.However,in the spatial dimension,there are still multiple issues that need to be further explored regarding the impact of urbanization on market potential.This paper uses panel data of 31 cities at prefecture level and above in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2010 to 2020 to explore the nonlinear impact mechanism of urbanization and market potential.Research has found that three types of urbanization have significant spatial spillover effects on market potential,and exhibit significant spatial attenuation characteristics,showing high positive spatial spillovers gradually decreasing to low spatial spillovers within their respective effective kilometer ranges.Under the four mechanisms of urbanization,industrial structure optimization level,consumption level,and investment expansion level,urbanization has a“gradient”enhancement characteristic that affects the market potential of cities.However,during the intervention process of industrial rationalization mechanism under the industrial structure optimization level,the impact of urbanization on market potential is a“first increase then decrease”process.Under classification testing,it was found that mega cities and large cities gained more market scale and potential benefits from urbanization,while medium-sized cities benefited less.It should be noted that small cities are experiencing a weakening of market potential while urbanization developing rapidly.