基于反周期操作思路的生猪生产决策研究

Research on Pig Production Decision Based on Counter Cyclical Operation

猪肉是我国最主要肉类消费品,也是市场价格波动比较剧烈的商品。为帮助生猪生产主体应对市场价格波动,按照反周期操作的思路,通过生猪价格和成本历史走势的计量分析,结合生猪生产的时间周期,采用二元logit模型生成生猪价格预测模型。结果表明:预测模型能够达到78%左右的预测准确性,且结果的鲁棒性较好。这说明可以让生猪生产主体能够根据生猪市场价格和成本的历史信息,做出更合理的增产或者减产策略,进而有助于生猪生产主体降低被动适应市场带来的可能损失,主动应对市场变化,实现更多可能的盈利。

Pork was the most important meat consumer goods in China,and it was also a commodity with severe market price fluctuations.In order to help pig producers cope with market price fluctuations,according to the idea of counter cyclical operation,through the econometric analysis of the historical trend of pig prices and costs,combined with the time cycle of pig production,the binary logit model was used to generate the pig price prediction model.The results showed that the prediction model could achieve about 78%of the prediction accuracy,and the results were robust.The study showed that it could enable pig producers to make more reasonable strategies for increasing or decreasing production according to the historical information of pig market price and cost,and then help pig producers to reduce the possible losses caused by passively adapting to the market,actively respond to market changes,and achieve more possible profits.