基于DEMATEL-ISM法的水库移民安置投资控制研究

Research on the Investment Control of Reservoir Migration Project Based on DEMATEL-ISM Method

水库移民安置过程周期长、涉及面广,投资控制难度大,经常出现移民安置投资超概算问题,如何有效地控制水库移民安置投资成为迫切需要研究的问题。从项目外部环境、项目主体、项目参与方3个方面分析影响水库移民安置投资的主要因素,通过DEMATEL-ISM模型量化水库移民安置投资影响因素之间的综合作用程度,并分析不同影响因素的层次结构和整体影响关系,研究表明:本文提出的17个移民安置投资影响因素中有8个原因因素和9个结果因素;ISM将影响因素集划分为6层3类,其中建设征地和移民规模、移民实物量变化、移民安置实施进度、合同管理和项目参与者之间沟通是直接影响因素,政策调整是深层影响因素。最后根据模型计算结果提出建议:增强根本影响因素,重视中间影响因素,落实直接影响因素,以期为更加准确有效地进行水库移民安置投资控制工作提供参考。

The process of resettlement in reservoir areas is a long one,involving a wide range of areas,and it is difficult to control invest⁃ment.The problem of overestimating the investment in resettlement often occurs.Therefore,how to effectively control the investment in reset⁃tlement in reservoir areas has become an urgent problem to be studied.This paper analyzes the main factors affecting the reservoir resettle⁃ment investment from three aspects:external project environments,project subjects and project participants.It quantifies the comprehensive effect degree of the factors influencing the reservoir resettlement investment through DEMATEL-ISM model,and analyzes the hierarchical structure and overall impact relationship of different factors.The research shows that:There are 8 cause factors and 9 result factors among the 17 influencing factors of resettlement investment.ISM divides the set of influencing factors into 6 layers and 3 categories.Among them,land expropriation for construction and immigration scale,changes in physical quantity of immigration,implementation progress of resettle⁃ment,contract management and communication among project participants are direct influencing factors,while policy adjustment is an im⁃portant influencing factor.Finally,according to the calculation results of the model,the authors put forward some suggestions:strengthening the fundamental influencing factors,paying attention to the intermediate influencing factors,and implementing the direct influencing fac⁃tors,so as to provide a reference for the more accurate and effective control of the investment in reservoir resettlement.