基于专利分析的颠覆性技术演化与预测研究——以量子信息技术为例

The Evolution and Prediction of Disruptive Technologies Based on Patent Analysis:An Example of Quantum Information Technology

颠覆性技术拥有巨大的创造性和破坏力,能够颠覆原有技术体系,并深刻改变人们的日常生活和工作方式。关注颠覆性技术演化并对其进行预测有助于提高我国整体科研水平,提前占据科技高地。利用专利分析方法与主题模型绘制颠覆性技术整体演化路径,把握技术发展整体态势,并利用后离散方法对前沿技术热点进行分析。对于颠覆性技术进行预测,利用复杂网络相关理论和方法探究技术之间的潜在关联。利用量子信息技术进行实证分析,证明研究方法的可行性,为我国科技创新与预测提供新研究路径,有助于提高我国颠覆性技术与科技前沿感知能力。

In today's world,with the continual introduction and application of new methods,new technologies and new knowledge,science and industry are facing disruptive changes.The ability of scientific and technological innovation has become the first driving force for social and economic development.As an important component of scientific and technological innovation,disruptive technology is a powerful engine that drives a new wave of technological change,and is an effective way to achieve"overtaking on a bend"in the field of scientific and technological innovation.Predictions and research of disruptive technologies have now become the high point in the game of great powers,and are crucial to countries'international transformation.In order to improve China's scientific and technological innovation capability and predictive capability of disruptive technologies,this paper proposes a research method combining patent analysis with complex network theory.Specifically,the discussion of disruptive technologies focuses on the evolution and prediction of disruptive technologies,and it helps to grasp the overall development of disruptive technology and analyze its development trend,and effectively guide the forward-looking layout and innovation of disruptive technologies by the government.Disruptive technology prediction refers to the identification of potential disruptive technology signs in the prevailing technology and systematic potential evaluation based on the feasibility and impact of technology.This paper makes a large-scale study of disruptive technology,in which its characteristics are analyzed,and the research on the evolution and prediction of disruptive technology is summarized.Patent is an important index and carrier to measure the development of technology,so patent analysis is used primarily in this study to effectively describe the evolution of disruptive technologies and map the technology development according to the evolution trend.On the basis of the results of patent analysis,the cutting-edge technologies of the technology development path graph is analyzed by post-discrete method,and the development direction of different technology hot spots is evaluated.Related theories of complex networks are used for predicting disruptive technologies.First,the study selects the key technology hot spots as nodes in a complex network based on the evolutionary path of disruptive technologies.Then it uses the link prediction algorithms to analyze similarities in different technical nodes.Link prediction refers to predicting the possibility of link generation between two nodes that have not yet been connected in the network through information,such as known network nodes and network structures.These predictions include predictions of unknown links as well as future links.The network structure is reconstructed by Word2Vec algorithm according to node density and node center,so as to predict the node-specific link.In order to verify the reliability of theory and method,quantum information technology is selected for empirical analysis.Through empirical analysis,this study analyzes the evolution trends of quantum information technology and reasonably predicts the potential associated technologies,in the hope of solving the problems of inaccurate and subjective description of disruptive technologies,and providing new ideas and approaches for the prediction of disruptive technologies in China.Given the present situation in which China is facing a"net clock"in key technologies and the arduous task in the fourteenth Five-Year Plan,this paper puts forward the following suggestions.(1)The analysis of the overall trend of technological development should be emphasized,and the analysis of subversive technological evolution is the prerequisite and foundation for realizing technological prediction.(2)Because the prediction of association of disruptive technology is the key to occupying the highlands of science and technology and achieve disruptive breakthroughs,it is essential to strengthen the prediction of association between technology hot spots in the field of technology,and then improve the perception of potential technologies and accurately identify the development trends of different technology hot spots in disruptive technologies.