气候变化对斑衣蜡蝉在中国潜在适生区分布的影响

Effects of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Lycorma delicatula(Homoptera:Fulgoridae)in China

为预防中国常见的园林害虫斑衣蜡蝉(Lycorma delicatula)对以臭椿(Ailanthus altissima)为主的园林绿化树种造成危害,结合长期实地调查数据和网络数据库收集的物种分布数据,利用物种分布模型最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,对斑衣蜡蝉在中国历史(1971-2000年)和未来4个时间段(2021-2040年,2041-2060年,2061-2080年、2081-2100年)气候场景的适生区进行了预测,通过对比历史和未来时期的预测结果,分析了气候变化对斑衣蜡蝉在中国潜在适生区分布的影响。结果表明:历史气候场景,斑衣蜡蝉的适生区将广泛分布于中国东部和中部地区,且适生概率自东向西逐渐降低;未来气候变化将导致斑衣蜡蝉的适生区逐渐向北迁移,同时中国北方的适生概率逐渐加强,而中部和南部地区的适生概率将逐渐降低。因此,在斑衣蜡蝉防治中,在东部地区应持续加大防治力度,将其种群密度遏制在较低水平;同时也应加强对其他气候适宜地区的主要寄主树种的虫情监测和预警。

In order to prevent the common forestry pest in China,Lycorma delicatula,from harming many landscape trees of Ailanthus altissima,we combined the occurrences data from the long-term field survey and the online database,then used the species distribution model MaxEnt to predict the potential distribution of L.delicatula under the historical(1970-2000)and four future periods(2021-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080 and 2081-2100)climate scenarios in China.The effects of climate change on the potential distribution were analyzed by comparing the predictive results under historical and future scenarios.Under the historical climate scenario,the climatic suitable regions of L.delicatula widely distributed in the eastern and central China,with the suitability probability decreasing gradually from east to west.Future climate change will lead to the northward shift of the climatic suitable regions of the pest.Also,the suitability probability of fitness in northern China will gradually strengthen,while the suitability probability in central and southern China will gradually decrease,while that in central and northern will increase with time.Therefore,we suggest that the control and prevention measures in eastern China should be insisted on to contain the population density at a low level.Meanwhile,the monitoring and early warning measures in other climatic suitable regions should be strengthened to prevent the pest from spreading into forests and resulting in serious damage.