关键矿产供应风险评估与预测——以铜资源为例

Risk assessment and prediction of critical mineral resources supply for China:A case of copper

【目的】当今世界全球安全风险剧增,关键矿产资源也不例外。中国的关键矿产面临怎样的供应风险,中国如何应对与日俱增的关键矿产供应风险亟待研究。【方法】为此,本文引入国际竞争力指数、构建了矿产资源“环境-市场-资源-竞争力”(EMRC)供应风险评估与预测指标体系,采用SMAA-TRI方法对中国2008—2021年铜资源的供应风险进行了评价,并采用BP神经网络方法对中国铜资源供应风险进行了预测。【结果】研究显示:(1)国际竞争力维度对中国铜资源供应风险的影响最大,环境维度的影响最小;(2)从铜资源整体供应风险来看中国铜资源供应整体上处于中高风险到高风险区域且呈现逐年上升的趋势;(3)2022和2023年中国铜资源供应风险预测为中高风险。【结论】为提高铜资源的保障程度,中国应加大铜资源勘查投入,提高国内铜矿资源利用率,加强资源外交,分散进口来源。

[Objective]In today's world,global risks have increased dramatically,and critical mineral resources are no exception.What are the supply risks of critical minerals for China and how should China deal with the increasing risks of critical mineral resources supply?[Methods]To answer these questions,we established an evaluation and prediction indicator system of environment-market-resource-competitiveness(EMRC)for assessing the supply risks of critical mineral resources by introducing an international competitiveness index,evaluated the supply risk of copper resources in China from 2008 to 2021 by using the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis(SMAA-TRI)method,and predicted the supply risk of copper resources in China by adopting the back propagation(BP)neural network.[Results]The results show that:(1)The international competitiveness dimension had the greatest impact on China's copper supply risk,while the environmental dimension had the least impact;(2)From the perspective of the overall supply risk of copper resources,China's risk is generally in the medium-high to high range,with a rising trend year by year;(3)From 2022 to 2023,the predicted value of China's copper resources supply risk is medium-high.[Conclusion]To enhance the security of copper resources supply,China should increase investment in copper exploration,improve the utilization rate of domestic copper resources,strengthen resource diplomacy,and diversify import sources.