中国农村居民生物质能消费估计

Estimation of biomass energy consumption in rural China

【目的】农村能源问题事关乡村振兴战略、双碳战略实施和能源资源安全,但由于农村生物质能统计系统的不完善,导致农村能源家底尚未摸清,由此妨碍了科学研究和精准决策。弥补现有能源统计数据的缺失,可为后续经验研究提供可信的数据基础和决策分析依据。【方法】本文依赖已有微观入户大样本调查数据,整合多源异构数据形成中国农村家庭能源消费微观数据集,首次引入贝叶斯时空模型对中国农村生物质能历史消费数据进行估计,重构1992—2016年中国农村生物质用量序列。【结果】(1)1992—2016年,农村生物质能用量持续下降,从1992年1.95亿t标准煤下降到2016年1.25亿t标准煤,年均降幅为1.7%。“能源消费革命”提出后,中国农村生物质能用量下降幅度明显加快,年均降幅达到3.8%,说明“能源消费革命”卓有成效,极大地推动了农村能源消费转型。(2)农村使用生物质能的家庭数量也在持续减少,使用薪柴和秸秆的家庭减少了近50%。(3)在区域层面,生物质能使用主要集中在西部和东北地区,这两个区域薪柴消费量占到全国消费量的80%左右,秸秆消费量占比约为65%~70%。【结论】本文的估计思路和方法在一定程度上可以解决学术研究中面临的数据缺失难题,研究结论可为提升偏远地区高质量用能水平提供理论支撑。

[Objective]Rural biomass energy is vital for implementing the rural revitalization and carbon neutrality strategies.However,the absence of a biomass energy statistical system hindered data-based academic research and targeted decision making.[Methods]To fill this research gap,this study integrated various micro household survey data and established a large-sample multisource heterogeneous dataset—the Chinese Rural Household Energy Consumption dataset.We then applied the Bayesian spatiotemporal model to estimate the historical data of China's rural biomass energy consumption from 1992 to 2016.[Results]The results show that:(1)During 1992-2016,biomass consumption in rural areas of China experienced a decline,from 195 million tons of standard coal in 1992 to 125 million tons in 2016,with an annual average decline of 1.7%.Since the“energy consumption revolution”initiative was put forward,the decline of rural biomass consumption has obviously accelerated,with an annual average decline of 3.8%,indicating that the“energy consumption revolution”initiative has been very effective and greatly promoted the transformation of rural energy consumption.(2)During 1992-2016,the number of rural households using biomass also continued to decline,with the number of households using firewood and straw reduced by nearly 50%.(3)Biomass consumption is mainly concentrated in the western and northeastern regions,where firewood consumption accounts for about 80%of national consumption,and straw consumption accounts for about 65%-70%.[Conclusion]The framework and methods of this study are helpful for solving the problem of missing data in academic research,and the research conclusions can provide a theoretical support for improving the level of high-quality energy use in remote rural areas of China.