能源电力系统转型对中国环境影响评估

Environmental impact assessment of energy and power system transformation in China

【目的】构建以风电、光伏等可再生能源为主体的新型电力系统,是实现“碳中和”的重要举措。中国国土面积广阔,能源资源禀赋、能源生产结构、经济发展水平以及能源生产地域分工区域差异巨大。要实现全国尺度的“双碳”目标,必须实施区域差异化的行动方案。【方法】从全国七大电网区域分析入手,使用生命周期评估方法和GIS-MCDA模型,结合各省未来用电需求及比例,量化能源电力系统转型对全国和七大电网区域的环境影响。【结果】研究表明:(1)2015—2020年,全国及各区域环境压力持续增大,华东地区和华北地区是主要排放区域。(2)2025—2060年构建以新能源为主体的能源系统能够极大程度减少环境影响的压力,但非生物耗竭潜势除外。(3)从整体上看,煤电对环境影响程度高于其他能源电力类型(非生物耗竭潜势除外),水力发电对环境影响最小。【结论】本文研究成果可为中国通过能源转型助力“双碳”目标实现提供科学依据,同时也对政府更好地制定政策具有一定的参考价值。

[Objective]Building a new type of electric system based on renewable energies,such as wind power and photovoltaic power,is an important measure to achieve carbon neutrality.China has a vast land area with significant differences in energy resource endowment,energy production structure,economic development level,and regional specialization for energy production.To achieve the“dual carbon”goals at a national scale,it is necessary to implement regionally differentiated action plans.[Methods]Starting from the analysis of the seven major power grid regions in China,using the methods of life cycle assessment and GIS-MCDA model,combined with the future electricity demand and proportion of each province,to quantify the environmental impact of energy and power system transformation on the Chinese region.[Results]The results of this study show that:(1)From 2015 to 2020,the environmental pressure on China and each of its seven regions continuously increased,with the East China and North China regions being the main emitting areas.(2)From 2025 to 2060,building an energy system based on new energy sources can greatly reduce the environmental pressure,except for the non-biomass exhaustion potential.(3)Overall,coal-based power generation has a higher environmental impact than other energy types(except for non-biomass exhaustion potential),and hydroelectric power generation has the smallest environmental impact among the five selected energy types.[Conclusion]The research results can provide a scientific basis for China to achieve the“dual carbon”goals through energy transformation,and also have some reference value for the government to make improved policy decisions.