长江经济带电力消耗时空格局演变特征

Evolution Characteristics of the Spatiotemporal Pattern of Electricity Power Consumption in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

揭示电力消耗的时空演变动态特征对于实现电力资源的科学调配与合理利用有着重要的意义。因此,本文基于从DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据提取的电力消耗数据,以我国长江经济带为例,运用变异系数、核密度分析、位序-规模法则、趋势分析、标准差椭圆等多种方法,对长江经济带省级、地级和县级三种不同尺度下的电力消耗时空格局演变特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)通过变异系数,我们发现长江经济带电力消耗变异系数(CV)在省、地、县三级都呈现出下降趋势。具体来看,县级电力消耗差异最大,其次是省级和地级。(2)通过核密度分析,我们发现长江经济带电力消耗集聚程度明显呈现出由东部向中西部依次递减的特征。(3)通过位序-规模法则,发现在省级、地级和县级尺度上长江经济带在研究时间段内的|q|值一直处于不断下降的态势,并且|q|值不断接近1,说明长江经济带在省级、地级和县级等多个尺度上电力消耗的规模与数量分布日趋合理。(4)通过趋势分析,我们发现长江经济带在省级、地级和县级三个尺度上的电力消耗变化增幅都明显呈现出由东部向中西部依次递减的特征。(5)通过标准差椭圆分析,我们发现长江经济带电力消耗标准差椭圆明显呈现出“西南-东北”的空间分布方向,并且往长三角地区的指向性非常明显,这说明推动长江经济带电力消耗增长的主要动力来自东西方向地区的电力消耗的增长。

Revealing the dynamic characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution of electricity power consumption(EPC)is of great significance for realizing the scientific allocation and rational utilization of electricity power resources.Therefore,based on the EPC data extracted from the DMSP/OLS nighttime light data,this paper takes the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)as an example,and uses various methods such as coefficient of variation,Kernel density analysis,rank-scale rule,trend analysis,and standard deviation ellipse.The evolution characteristics of the spatiotemporal pattern of EPC at the provincial,prefecture and county levels in the YREB were analyzed.The results show that:(1)Through the coefficient of variation(CV),we found that the coefficient of variation(CV)of EPC in the YREB showed a downward trend at the provincial,prefecture and county levels.Specifically,the county-level EPC has the largest difference,followed by the provincial and prefecture-level.(2)Through the kernel density analysis,we found that the EPC agglomeration degree in the YREB obviously shows the characteristics of decreasing from the east to the central and western regions.(3)Through the rank-scale rule,it is found that the|q|value of the YREB has been in a downward trend during the research period at the provincial,prefecture and county scales,and the|q|value is constantly approaching 1.It directly shows that the scale and quantity distribution of EPC in the YREB at the provincial,prefecture and county levels are becoming more and more reasonable.(4)Through trend analysis,we found that the changes in EPC in the YREB at the provincial,prefecture and county scales all obviously showed a decreasing trend from the east to the central and western regions.(5)Through the standard deviation ellipse(SDE),we found that the standard deviation ellipse of the EPC in the YREB obviously shows the spatial distribution direction of“Southwest-Northeast”,and the directionality to the Yangtze River Delta is very obvious,which directly indicates that the promotion of the YREB that the main driving force behind the growth in EPC is the increase in EPC in the east-west direction.