居民膳食结构升级对耕地非粮化的影响

The Effect of Upgrading the Dietary Structure of Residents on Non-grain Production of Cultivated Land

居民膳食结构调整对耕地利用方式的影响已引起了学界的关注。基于此,本文基于中国1992-2021年居民膳食结构时间序列数据,运用VAR模型探究居民膳食结构升级对中国耕地非粮化的动态影响机制,并利用脉冲响应及方差分解分析其影响方向和影响程度。研究发现:(1)1992-2021年期间耕地非粮化率均值为31.02%,总体呈现波动上升趋势;(2)居民植物性食物消费比例减少、动物性食物比例上升,食物消费结构整体由单一向多元转变;(3)蛋白质、脂肪、膳食纤维、钙摄入水平总体呈波动上升趋势,能量和碳水化合物总体呈波动下降趋势,食物所含的膳食营养元素变化与人均食物消费结构变化趋势总体相吻合;(4)整体上,蛋白质、脂肪、钙摄入对耕地非粮化影响为正,表明动物性食物消费增加会加剧耕地非粮化;(5)总体上,能量、蛋白质、钙摄入对非粮化的影响程度较大。本研究可以为大食物观视野下耕地非粮化治理策略和耕地保护决策提供科学支撑,对于膳食结构调整升级背景下优化耕地利用方式、提高耕地利用效率、保障粮食安全具有积极意义。

The impact of dietary structure adjustments among residents on the utilization of arable land has attracted academic attention.This study used the time series data for the dietary structure of residents from 1992 to 2021 in China to explore the dynamic impact mechanism of dietary structure upgrading on non-grain production by using VAR model,and analyzed the direction and degree of impact by using impulse response diagram and variance decomposition.This analysis indicated five key features of this system.(1)The average value of the non-grain production rate was 31.02%during the period of 1992-2021,and it showed a fluctuating upward trend.(2)The proportion of plant food consumption by the residents was decreasing and the proportion of animal food was increasing,and the structure of food consumption was shifting from singular to diversified.(3)The intake levels of protein,fat,dietary fibre,and calcium showed fluctuating upward trends,and the intakes of energy and carbohydrate showed a fluctuating downward trends,and the change in the dietary nutrient intake level of residents was consistent with the trend of change in the per capita food consumption structure.(4)On the whole,protein,fat and calcium intake had positive effects on non-grain production,indicating that increases in animal food consumption would aggravate the non-grain production.(5)Overall,energy,protein,and calcium intakes had greater impacts on non-grain production.The results of this study can provide scientific support for the non-grain governance strategy of arable land and the decisions regarding arable land protection from the concept of“an all-encompassing approach to food”.These results also have positive significance for optimizing the mode of arable land use,improving the efficiency of arable land use and ensuring food security under the background of dietary structure adjustments and upgrading.