考虑双重不确定性的区域综合能源系统多阶段滚动随机规划

Multi-stage Rolling Stochastic Planning of Regional Integrated Energy System Considering Dual-uncertainty

在绿色能源转型的背景下,以新型电力系统为核心的区域综合能源系统(RIES)多能耦合程度逐渐加深。在长期的规划运行过程中,除了源荷本身固有的常规预期波动特性外,还容易受到外界扰动的影响,从而产生非预期的不确定性。因此,文中提出了一种考虑预期与非预期双重不确定性的RIES多阶段滚动随机扩展规划。首先,针对RIES长期规划以及常规多能源荷预期不确定性,考虑建设过程中的投资成本、能源站收益、碳税等,基于信息间隙决策理论建立RIES多阶段随机规划模型。然后,考虑规划过程中突发的非预期不确定性,借鉴模型预测控制理论,建立RIES多阶段滚动随机规划。最后,以中国江苏地区的JSYZ-66节点测试系统为例,验证了所提方法在长期规划中面对常规源荷预期不确定性以及规划过程中非预期不确定性的有效性,分析了在风险投机和风险规避策略下规划方向的选择对于规划结果的影响。

In the background of green energy transformation,the regional integrated energy system(RIES)with the new power system as the core,has gradually deepened its multi-energy coupling degree.In the process of long-term planning operation,in addition to the inherent conventional expected fluctuation characteristic of the source load itself,RIES is also easy to be affected by external disturbances,resulting in unexpected uncertainties.Therefore,this paper proposes a multi-stage rolling stochastic expansion planning of RIES considering both expected and unexpected uncertainties.First,aiming at the long-term planning of RIES and the expected uncertainty of conventional multi-energy source-load,the multi-stage stochastic planning model of RIES is established based on the information gap decision theory,considering the investment cost,energy station income and carbon tax during the construction process.Then,considering the unexpected uncertainty in the planning process,a multi-stage rolling stochastic planning of RIES is established using model predictive control theory for reference.Finally,taking the JSYZ-66-bus test system in Jiangsu,China as an example,the effectiveness of the proposed method in long-term planning is verified against conventional source-load expected uncertainties and unexpected uncertainties in the planning process,and the influence of the choice of planning direction under the risk speculation and risk avoidance strategies on the planning results is analyzed.