定位误差影响下的配对进近纵向碰撞风险研究

A Study on Longitudinal Collision Risk of Airplanes during Paired Approach Under the Influence of Positioning Error

近距平行跑道(closely spaced parallel runways,CSPRs)配对进近纵向碰撞风险研究对评估配对进近程序的安全性至关重要,其中定位误差又直接影响配对进近纵向碰撞风险。针对以往研究中缺乏对定位误差分布的实际数据的拟合,进行基于实际数据拟合的定位误差影响下的配对进近纵向碰撞风险研究。根据配对进近的实施流程,建立配对前后机纵向间隔随时间变化的运动学模型。对于飞行过程中定位误差,采用实际航空器定位误差统计数据拟合定位误差分布。基于广播式自动相关监视(ADS-B)数据,对航空器最后进近阶段的纵向定位误差进行拟合分析,匹配出适配程度最佳的分布——正态分布。分别研究配对2架飞机机身之间的碰撞风险和前机尾流与后机机身之间的碰撞风险,确定每类碰撞风险模型中积分区间上下限。在正态分布的基础上结合配对进近2架飞机的运动过程,建立配对进近纵向碰撞风险评估模型。收集2020年12月上海虹桥机场B737-800机型相关参数数据并进行算例分析,对给定初始纵向间隔分别为926 m和2778 m时,机身碰撞风险(P_(x1))和尾流碰撞风险(P_(x2))随时间的变化进行计算仿真,同时进一步仿真分析不同起始纵向间隔与P_(x1),P_(x2)以及总体纵向碰撞风险最值之间的关系。结果表明:(1)初始纵向间隔为926 m时,随着时间的增长,P_(x1)逐渐减小,P_(x2)逐渐增大,且P_(x1)远大于P_(x2);(2)初始纵向间隔为2778 m时,结果相反;(3)P_(x1)随初始纵向间隔的增加逐渐减小;(4)P_(x2)随初始纵向间隔的增加逐渐增大;(5)前后机的总体纵向碰撞风险随初始纵向间隔的增加有先减小后增大的规律,当初始纵向间隔小于2136 m时纵向碰撞风险主要取决于前后2架飞机机身在纵向上的碰撞风险,反之则取决于前机尾流与后机机身之间的碰撞风险。

Studying longitudinal collision risk of paired approach on closely spaced parallel runways(CSPRs)is crucial for assessing its safety,where positioning errors directly influence the longitudinal collision risk during the process.Given the lack of consideration on actual data fitting for positioning error distribution in previous studies,this study aims investigate the longitudinal collision risk during paired approach under the influence of actual data-fitted positioning error.According to the implementation process of paired approach,a kinematic model for the longitudinal spacing between aircrafts before and after pairing is established.In terms of positioning error during flight,statistical data of actual aircraft positioning errors are utilized to fit the distribution.Next,utilizing Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast(ADS-B)data,the longitudinal positioning error during the final approach phase is analyzed and fitted to identify the best-fitting distribution,that is,normal distribution.The collision risk between the aircraft fuselages in paired approach and the collision risk between the wake turbulence of lead aircraft and the fuselage of trailing aircraft are studied separately,and integral intervals for each collision risk model are determined.Based on the normal distribution and the movements of the paired aircrafts during paired approach,an assessment model for the longitudinal collision risk is established.Finally,data about the B737-800 aircraft at Shanghai Hongqiao Airport in December 2020 are collected for a case study.Simulations are conducted to analyze the changes in collision risk of fuselage P_(x1)and collision risk of wake turbulence P_(x2)over time under the initial longitudinal separations of 926 m and 2778 m.Further,the relationship between different initial longitudinal separations and P_(x1)/P_(x2)or the maximum value of overall longitudinal collision risk.The results indicate that:①when the initial longitudinal separation is 926 m,P_(x1)gradually decreases while P_(x2)increases over time,and P_(x1)is significantly greater than P_(x2).②When the initial longitudinal separation is 2778 m,the results are the opposite.③P_(x1)decreases while P_(x2)increases as the initial longitudinal separation increases.④The overall longitudinal collision risk between the lead and trailing aircrafts decreases first and then increases with increasing initial longitudinal separation;⑤when the initial longitudinal separation is smaller than 2136 m,the longitudinal collision risk is primarily determined by the collision risk between the fuselages of lead and trailing aircrafts;when the initial longitudinal separation is larger than 2136 m,it is determined by the collision risk between the wake turbulence of lead aircraft and the fuselage of trailing aircraft.