中国经济驱动型省级天然气负荷的预测模型

Prediction model for economy-driven provincial natural gas load in China

为解决省级天然气规划中发展目标的合理确立与发展潜力的比较问题,开展天然气负荷预测模型的创新探索。通过数据归类、相关性分析以及与发达国家的对标分析,利用曲面拟合方法建立了中国经济驱动型省级天然气负荷中长期预测模型,绘制了天然气消费潜力、GDP以及一次能源消费的三维坐标系,选取南方10个省/直辖市为研究对象,定量分析了各省/直辖市2030年天然气消费需求。结果表明:未来天然气需求旺盛,在GDP复合增长率为5%情景下,10个省/直辖市在2030年天然气需求总量达3155×108 m^(3),是2021年的2.5倍,其中消费绝对增量与增速最大的分别为广东省、湖南省。研究结果可为天然气市场调节与发展提供参考。

In order to reasonably establish the objectives and compare the potential of development in provincial natural gas planning,innovative exploration was carried out for the natural gas load prediction model.Through data classification,correlation analysis and benchmarking analysis with the developed countries,the medium-and long-term prediction model of economy-driven provincial natural gas load in China was established by the surface fitting method.Meanwhile,the three-dimensional coordinate system of natural gas consumption potential,GDP and primary energy consumption was drawn.Ten southern provinces(municipalities directly under the Central Government)were selected as the research subjects to quantitatively analyze the natural gas consumption demand in 2030.The results indicate that there is a strong demand for natural gas in the future.Under the scenario of a compound GDP growth rate of 5%,the total demand for natural gas in the ten provinces(municipalities directly under the Central Government)will reach 3155×10~8 m~3 in 2030,which is 2.5 times that of 2021.Among them,Guangdong Province and Hunan Province have the largest absolute increase and the highest growth rate of consumption,respectively.Generally,the research results could provide reference for the market regulation and development of natural gas.