天津市卫生总费用结构变动及趋势预测研究

Structural changes and trends of total expenditure on health in Tianjin

目的分析天津市2010年-2021年卫生总费用发展变化情况,并预测2022年-2030年卫生总费用的变化趋势,为相关部门制定政策文件提供参考依据。方法根据2010年-2021年天津市卫生总费用等相关数据,采用结构变动度分析法和GM(1,1)灰色预测模型进行研究。结果2010年-2021年天津市卫生总费用呈逐年增长趋势,社会卫生支出是引起总费用结构变动的主要构成,个人卫生支出次之,政府卫生支出贡献率最低;预测2022年-2030年卫生总费用将保持稳定增长,社会卫生支出占比逐年提高,政府卫生支出和个人卫生支出占比逐年下降。结论“十四五”“十五五”时期,天津市卫生总费用应保持适度增长,应建立健全政府卫生财政投入机制,建立多元社会筹资渠道,进一步减轻居民个人就医负担。

Objective To analyze the changes of total expenditure on health(TEH)in Tianjin from 2010 to 2021 and to predict the trend of TEH from 2022 to 2030,so as to provide a reference for policy-making.Methods The TEH data of Tianjin from 2010 to 2021 were collected and analyzed.The trends were predicted using the structural change degree analysis method and the grey prediction model GM(1,1).Results The TEH in Tianjin increased annually from 2010 to 2021,in which social health expenditure was the main component causing the structural change of TEH,followed by personal health expenditure;the government health expenditure had the lowest contribution rate.It was predicted that the TEH would maintain a stable growth from 2022 to 2030,in which the proportion of social health expenditure would increase annually and the proportions of government health expenditure and personal health expenditure would drop year by year.Conclusions During the span of the"14th Five-Year Plan"and"15th Five-Year Plan",a moderate growth rate for TEH should be maintained in Tianjin,Furthermore,a solid framework for government-funded healthcare investments should be established,along with diverse social fund-raising channels,so as to further reduce the burden of personal healthcareexpenses.