美国智库中的“澳英美三边安全伙伴关系”:威胁认知、战略设计与中国应对

AUKUS in U.S.Think Tanks:Threat Perception,Strategic Design and China's Response

[研究目的]全面研究美国智库中关于“澳英美三边安全伙伴关系”的认知与设计,有助于中国把握美国当前以战略竞争为主题的重大战略规划与未来决策走向并制定对策。[研究方法]选取美国10所代表性的智库的重要文献作为研究样本,系统分析美国代表性的智库关于“澳英美三边安全伙伴关系”发起和运行的认知与设计及其重点与难点。[研究结论]研究表明,美国战略界将AUKUS视为威慑和遏制中国的重要抓手,旨在不同阶段打造可以威慑中国的力量并带来持久的竞争优势,但其在内部协调和外部交往上还存在不确定性。对此,中国应统筹发展与安全,在科学技术创新、战略情报评估、威慑能力提高等方面不断发展,并维护国际核不扩散体系,支持有关区域建立无核武器区。

[Research purpose]Analyzing the cognition and design of American think tanks on AUKUS,is significant for China to grasp the current strategic planning and the future decision-making trend of the United States and formulate countermeasures.[Research method]By selecting the representative literature of 10 mainstream think tanks in the United States as research samples,this paper systematically analyzes the cognition and design of American think tanks on the launch and operation of AUKUS,as well as its key points and difficulties.[Research conclusion]The research shows that the American strategic community regards AUKUS as an important lever to deter and contain China at different stages.They have a consensus on strategic design and the uncertainty of AUKUS.In this regard,China should continue to develop in scientific and technological innovation,strategic intelligence evaluation,and deterrence ability improvement,firmly support relevant regions in establishing Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones.