新时代背景下长江经济带城镇化对物流业碳排放的脱钩效应及变动影响研究

Research on the Decoupling Effect and Changing Impact of Urbanization on Carbon Emissions of Logistics Industry in the New Era:A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

以长江经济带11个省市为研究对象,将城镇化对物流业碳排放变动的影响因素划分为收入、人口、空间和产业四个部分,分析其在2012—2018年的物流业碳排放变动影响作用,并研究新型城镇化发展水平与物流业碳排放量的脱钩状态。研究结果表明:人口城镇化对脱钩状态具有抑制作用,而收入城镇化表现为正向促进作用。从整体上看,新型城镇化发展和物流业碳排放之间主要存在三种脱钩状态:弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩以及增长连接。2016年后,整体的脱钩状态趋于平稳,表现出弱脱钩的状态,但作为经济最发达的下游地区脱钩状态最不明显。最后,提出因地制宜、合理规划城镇空间布局、设计智能物流系统以提高能源利用率等政策建议,以实现长江经济带新型城镇化和物流业的可持续发展。

Taking 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River economic belt as the research object,the influencing factors of urbanization on carbon emission change of logistics industry were divided into four parts:income,population,space and industry,and the impact of carbon emission change of logistics industry from 2012 to 2018 was analyzed;an exploration was also made on the decoupling state between the development level of new urbanization and the carbon emission of logistics industry.The results show that population urbanization has a restraining effect,while income urbanization has a positive promoting effect.On the whole,there are three decoupling states between the development of new urbanization and carbon emissions of logistics industry:weak decoupling,negative decoupling of expansion and growth connection.After 2016,the overall decoupling status tends to be stable,showing a weak decoupling status,but as the most economically developed downstream region,the decoupling status is the least obvious.Finally,some policy suggestions were put forward,such as adjusting measures to local conditions,reasonably planning urban spatial layout,designing intelligent logistics system to improve energy utilization,so as to realize the new urbanization of the Yangtze River economic belt and the sustainable development of logistics industry.