减税降费与产业结构变迁

Tax Cut and Structural Transformation

本文从经济转型视角为中国减税降费政策效应提供了不同于凯恩斯学派和供给学派的理论基础。当产业部门内部资本和劳动替代弹性较高或产业部门之间产品替代弹性较低时,减税降费在供给侧促使产业部门内部要素相互替代或产业部门之间产品相互替代,提高了制造业资本密集程度和实际产出比重与服务业就业比重和名义产出比重;当居民部门的支出结构不同于政府部门时,减税降费在需求侧改变不同产业部门产品需求结构,推动了消费结构转型。

We study the macroeconomic effects of tax cut through the lens of structural transformation,which are different from Keynesian economics or supply school theory.We propose that when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor within the sector is high or the elasticity of substitution between sectoral output is low,tax cut may simultaneously increase capital intensity of manufacturing and the share of services by inducing substitutions between factors within the sector or between sectoral output on the supply-side.When the structure of household expenditure is different from the government,tax cut may promote structural transformation by changing the consumption composition on the demand-side.