城乡居民消费结构的动态趋同与碳排放效应研究

A Study on the Dynamic Convergence of Urban and Rural Residents'Consumption Structure and Carbon Emission Effect

扩大居民绿色消费需求,提高绿色消费经济比重,有助于促进经济社会发展全面绿色转型。本文构建与应用Markov区制转移模型对城乡居民消费结构的趋同特征和碳排放效应进行研究,结果表明:城乡居民消费结构趋同碳排放效应演化路径中存在“减排区制”、“稳定区制”和“增排区制”三种区制;多数消费项目支出具有更高的由“稳定区制”向“减排区制”转移概率,“减排区制”相对“增排区制”具有更强的演化优势;农村居民对绿色消费品的消费偏好逐渐增加,促进了城乡居民消费结构的绿色趋同。需要通过缩小居民收入差距、塑造良好绿色消费环境等途径进一步扩大城乡居民绿色消费需求,强化城乡居民消费结构绿色趋同,推动经济持续绿色增长。

Expanding residents’green con⁃sumption demand and increasing the proportion of green consumption economy can help promote the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.This article constructs and applies Markov regime transfer model to study the convergence characteristics and carbon emission effect of urban and rural residents’consumption structure.The results show that:in the evolution path of carbon emission effect of urban and rural residents’consumption structure convergence,there are three types of regimes:‘emission reduction regime’,‘stabilization regime’and‘emission in⁃crease regime’;the majority of consumption item expenditures have a higher probability of transferring from‘stabilization regime’to‘emission reduction regime’.The‘emission reduction regime’has a stronger evolutionary advantage than the‘emission increase regime’;rural residents’preference for green consumer goods is gradually increasing,which promotes the green convergence of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents.It is necessary to further expand the green consumption demand of urban and rural residents by narrowing the income gap between residents and shaping a favorable green consumption environment,strengthening the green convergence of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents and promoting sustained green economic growth.