“双碳”目标下典型地区减污、降碳与经济增长关系研究:以黄河流域城市群为例

Relationship between Pollution and Carbon Reduction and Economic Growth in Typical Regions under the‘Dual Carbon’Goals:A Case Study of Urban Agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin

在经济高质量发展和减污降碳的双重压力下,以减污降碳协同增效为总抓手推动经济绿色转型,是碳达峰碳中和愿景下实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的迫切需要.为了分析黄河流域减污、降碳与经济增长之间的动态关系,探析其影响机制,并因地制宜提出经济社会全面绿色低碳转型政策建议,本研究基于2006−2020年黄河流域57个城市的主要环境污染物排放、碳排放和人均GDP面板数据,采用面板向量自回归模型(PAVR模型)对减污、降碳与经济增长三者的动态关系及影响机制开展实证研究.结果表明:①黄河流域经济发展自身惯性效应显著,未来10期经济发展所占贡献比均在95%以上,经济发展与环境污染物排放增加之间存在持续性、滞后性的双向作用机制,但工业废水排放、工业SO_(2)排放对经济增长的反作用机制较弱,对经济增长的贡献率仅分别为0.4%、1.8%,工业烟尘排放制约着黄河流域各城市的经济增长.②碳排放与经济增长存在双向因果关系,工业CO_(2)排放抑制经济增长,经济增长对工业CO_(2)排放的解释力度达到7.3%,互动方式呈现先促进、后阻碍、再促进的变化趋势.③从脉冲响应与方差分析结果来看,黄河流域减污、降碳与经济发展的协调程度有待加强,相对于经济增长对减污、降碳的作用效果而言,减污、降碳对经济增长的推动力尚显不足.因此,建议黄河流域不断促进环境保护与经济发展相协调、推动传统产业转型升级、构建绿色低碳发展新格局、充分发挥科技引领带动作用、完善协同管理体制机制.

In order to promote high-quality economic development as well as carbon and pollution reduction,it is urgent to promote green transformation of the economy.With a major focus on pollution and carbon reduction,the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin can be achieved through carbon neutrality.To analyse the dynamic relationship between pollution and carbon reduction and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin,this study explored its potential impact mechanisms to propose policy recommendations for a comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of the economy and society based on the local conditions.The study is based on the panel data of major environmental pollutant emissions,carbon emissions,and per capita GDP in 57 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2020.The panel vector autoregressive model(PAVR model)was used to conduct an empirical study on the dynamic relationship and impact mechanism between pollution and carbon reduction and economic growth.The results show that the inertia effect of economic development in the Yellow River Basin is significant,and the contribution of economic development is estimated to be more than 95%in the next 10 periods.There is a persistent and lagging two-way mechanism between economic development and the increase in pollutant emissions.However,the negative impact of industrial wastewater discharge and SO_(2) discharge on economic growth is weak,and their impact on economic growth is only 0.4%and 1.8%,respectively.Industrial soot emissions restrict the economic growth of cities in the Yellow River Basin.Additionally,a two-way causal relationship exists between carbon emissions and economic growth.Industrial CO_(2)emissions inhibit economic growth,and economic growth explains 7.3%of industrial CO_(2)emissions.The interaction mode shows a trend of promotion and hindrance,followed again by promotion.The results of impulse response and variance analysis show that the coordination between pollution and carbon reduction and economic development in the Yellow River Basin needs to be strengthened.Compared with the effect of economic growth on pollution and carbon reduction,the driving force of pollution and carbon reduction on economic growth is still insufficient.Therefore,in the Yellow River Basin,policies should constantly focus on maintaining a balance between environmental protection and economic development,promoting the transformation and upgradation of traditional industries,building a new pattern of green and low-carbon development,realising the leading role of science and technology to its full potential,and improving the mechanism of collaborative management systems.