开征VOCs环境保护税的环境与经济影响分析:以河北省为例

Environmental and Economic Impact Analysis of Levying VOCs Environmental Protection Tax:A Case Study of Hebei Province

当前挥发性有机物(VOCs)控制的经济手段处于政策真空期,污染形势严峻,“十四五”时期开征VOCs环境保护税对大气污染防治有重要意义.本研究聚焦河北省,测算其2018年VOCs排放清单,基于可计算的一般均衡(CGE)模型,构建依据VOCs排放量征税的环境模块,在不同VOCs环境保护税开征情景下对VOCs减排、二氧化碳减排效果及宏观经济与行业影响进行分析.结果表明:①开征VOCs环境保护税能带来VOCs排放的显著下降,税收规模较大.②开征VOCs环境保护税对居民收入、GDP、总消费和总出口等会产生一定的负面影响.③VOCs环境保护税政策具有减污降碳协同作用.④减排效应及产出冲击具有行业异质性,重点排放行业有一定的税负压力.因此,建议开征VOCs环境保护税,可先对重点排放行业开征,再依据管控要求逐步扩大范围,可从减排潜力最大且减排成本最低的行业入手;同时,加强研究VOCs减排技术,与经济手段共同作用,减少征税的经济负面影响.另外应进一步明确VOCs和二氧化碳协同减排机理,发掘环境税收的减污降碳协同增效作用.

Current economic regulation of volatile organic compounds(VOCs)control is in a policy vacuum period,and the pollution situation is severe.The imposition of VOCs environmental protection tax during the‘14th Five-Year Plan’period is of significant importance for air pollution prevention and control.This study focuses on Hebei Province,estimating its VOCs emission inventory in 2018.Based on the computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,an environmental module based on VOCs emission taxation is constructed to analyze the effects of VOCs emission reduction,carbon dioxide emission reduction,and macroeconomic and industry impacts under different scenarios of VOCs environmental protection tax.The results indicate that:(1)Levying VOCs environmental protection tax can significantly reduce VOCs emissions,with a large tax revenue scale.(2)Levying VOCs environmental protection tax has certain negative impacts on household income,GDP,total consumption and total exports.(3)VOCs environmental protection tax policy has a synergistic effect on pollution reduction and carbon reduction.(4)The emission reduction effect and output impact have industry heterogeneity,and key emission industries face certain tax burden pressure.Therefore,it is recommended to impose VOCs environmental protection tax,initially targeting key emission industries,and gradually expanding the scope based on the control requirements,which can start from the industry with the greatest emission reduction potential and the lowest emission reduction costs.Meanwhile,research on VOCs emission reduction technologies should be strengthened,together with economic regulation to reduce the negative impacts of taxation on the economy.Additionally,it is important to further clarify the mechanism of synergistic reduction of VOCs and carbon dioxide,and explore the synergistic effect of environmental taxation on pollution reduction and carbon reduction.