经济发展与产业结构对中国大气污染的影响——以2015—2020年省级数据为例

The Impact of Economic Development and Industrial Structure on Air Pollution in China——Taking the Provincial Data of 2015—2020 as an Example

该文以2015—2020年省级数据为例,分析了中国空气质量指数(AQI)和6种大气污染物(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)、CO、NO_(2)和O_(3))浓度的时空分布特征,阐明经济发展和产业结构对中国大气污染的影响.研究结果表明:1)中国大气污染在2015—2020年间呈下降趋势,东北和华中地区下降最大,华南和西北地区下降最小;尽管大气污染程度在下降,但可吸入颗粒物污染(PM_(2.5)和PM_(10))仍面临较大的防治压力,而且污染物O_(3)浓度程度也在加重.2)经济发展和产业结构解释了AQI方差变化的23.3%,其中产业结构的解释略多.与AQI相比,经济发展和产业结构对空气污染物NO_(2)和O_(3)方差变化的解释率较高,而对PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)和CO的解释率较低.3)中国部分发达地区的空气污染已经与经济发展脱钩,当人均GDP为115×10^(3)元时曲线出现转折.当产业结构(第二产业与第三产业比值)为0.6时曲线出现转折,低于此值则大气污染程度明显好转.4)用第三产业取代第二产业是使中国空气污染与经济发展脱钩的有效方法.然而,能源结构和能源利用效率的作用在未来会越来越重要.以上结论有助于阐明中国经济发展和产业结构调整对大气污染的影响机理,为中国大气污染的治理提供理论支撑.

Based on provincial data from 2015—2020,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of China′s air quality index(AQI)and concentration of six atmospheric pollutants(PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),CO,NO_(2),and O_(3))are analyzed,and the effects of economic development and industrial structure on China′s air pollution using correlation analysis and Random Forest model are elucidated.The results show that China′s air pollution has a decreasing trend from 2015 to 2020,with the largest decrease in Northeast China and Central China and the smallest decrease in South China and Northwest China.Pollutant SO_(2)concentration decreases the most,followed by PM_(2.5),PM_(10),CO and NO_(2).However,the O_(3)concentration is increasing,especially in North and East China.The economic development and industry structure explained 23.3%of the variance in the AQI in China,with a little more by industry structure.Compared with the AQI,it is found that economic development and industrial structure explained higher variance in air polluant NO_(2)and O_(3),and lower in PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2)and CO.Air pollution in a few developed regions of China is decoupled from economic development,and GDP per capita at 115×10^(3)yuan is the turning point.The turning point of the industrial structure(the ratio of the second industry to the tertiary industry)is 0.6,below which the AQI began to decrease rapidly.To decouple air pollution from economic development in China,replacing secondary industry with tertiary industry is an effective way.However,the role of energy structure and energy use efficiency will be more and more important in the future.The above findings help to elucidate the influence of economic development and industrial restructuring on air pollution in China,and provide theoretical support for the management of air pollution.