从人口特征看中国都市圈的发展态势

Assessing China’s Metropolitan Areas Development:Insights from Population Characteristics

都市圈是推动中国城镇化高质量发展的重要空间载体之一,基于第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据,从人口规模、年龄及素质结构三方面分析都市圈的人口特征,探讨都市圈的发展现状与近期趋势,结果表明:都市圈的规模差异部分来源于中心城市,更多来源于外围地区;多数都市圈中心城市的人口增长快于外围地区,处于集聚发展阶段;都市圈相较其他地区具有劳动力优势,主要表现在中心城市,同时也与全国人口老龄化趋势一样面临潜在风险,尤其是都市圈的外围地区;都市圈相较其他地区具有人口素质优势,但也同样主要表现在中心城市。在全国人口向都市圈集聚的趋势下,需要关注以都市圈为依托优化人口分布格局;在都市圈呈现人口年龄结构和素质结构优势的情况下,需要积极发挥结构性优势并应对潜在风险;此外,也需要进一步关注提升都市圈中心城市与外围地区的互动关系。

Metropolitan area is one of the crucial spatial carriers to promote high-quality urbanization in China.Based on the data from the sixth and seventh censuses,this paper analyzed the population characteristics of metropolitan areas from three aspects,namely,population size,age,and quality structure,and discussed the current development status and recent trends of metropolitan areas.The results showed that the size disparities in metropolitan areas are partly attributable to central cities,but also largely caused by the peripheral areas.Most metropolitan areas are in the stage of population agglomeration towards the central city,where the population of the central city is growing faster than that of the peripheral areas.Metropolitan areas have a labor force advantage compared to other areas,especially in their central cities.However,metropolitan areas also face potential risks consistent with the national trend of population ageing,particularly in their peripheral areas.Additionally,metropolitan areas have an advantage in terms of population quality over other regions,although it is primarily manifested in their central cities.Under the trend of population concentration towards metropolitan areas,attention needs to be drawn to optimizing the population distribution pattern based on metropolitan areas.With metropolitan areas presenting advantages in terms of population age structure and quality structure,there is a need to positively utilize structural advantages and cope with potential risks.Further attention also needs to be paid to enhancing the interaction between central cities and peripheral areas of metropolitan areas.