国家生态文明试验区建设有助于提升碳排放效率吗?——基于合成控制法的实证分析

Does the Construction of the National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone Help Improve Carbon Emission Efficiency?Empirical Analysis Based on Synthetic Control Method

以2016年起分批设立的国家生态文明试验区为准自然实验,借助合成控制法实证评估其建设对各试验区碳排放效率的影响效果及作用机制。研究发现,国家生态文明试验区建设有助于提升福建省和江西省的碳排放效率,且对福建省的提升幅度高于江西省,经安慰剂检验、排序检验、稀疏合成控制检验、DID检验后结论依旧成立。效率分解发现,国家生态文明试验区建设提升了福建省碳排放的规模效率变化指数,对江西省碳排放的规模效率变化指数和纯技术效率变化指数均有促进作用。机制分析发现,促进绿色技术创新、改善能源利用效率分别作为内生动力和外部途径,均能在国家生态文明试验区建设提升碳排放效率的过程中发挥积极作用。研究为全面推进我国生态文明建设、早日实现碳达峰和碳中和目标提供了理论参考和政策启示。

This paper takes the National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone established in batches since 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment,and empirically evaluates the impact and mechanism of its construction on carbon emission efficiency in each pilot zone using the synthetic control method.The study reveals that the construction of the National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone has helped to improve the carbon emission efficiency of both Fujian and Jiangxi,with a greater improvement observed in Fujian.The conclusion is still valid after placebo test,sorting test,sparse synthesis control test,and DID.Additionally,the efficiency decomposition find that the construction of the National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone has improved the scale efficiency change index of carbon emission in Fujian and promoted both the scale efficiency change index of carbon emission and the pure technical efficiency change index of carbon emission in Jiangxi.Mechanism analysis further reveals that promoting green technology innovation and optimizing energy utilization efficiency can play a positive role in the construction of the National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone to improve carbon emission efficiency as both endogenous and external means.Overall,this study provides theoretical references and policy recommendations for promoting the construction of ecological civilization in China and achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals as soon as possible.