飞行签派员警觉性预测三过程模型

Three process model of dispatcher alertness prediction

为解决民航飞行签派员警觉性预测问题,在国际通用的警觉性理论基础上,通过电子手环监测与精神运动能力测试(PVT)数据分析,构建面向民航飞行签派员的警觉性预测三过程模型(TPMA)。首先,从国内大型运输航空公司的一线值班飞行签派员中选取120名被试,在40 h睡眠剥夺条件下定时采集体温数据,并对被试进行PVT测试;其次,使用余弦分析法确定相位,根据测试数据,确定模型的上下渐近线,睡眠转换阈值等关键参数;然后,通过提前唤醒,测试修正睡眠惯性过程;最后,测试120名被试用以验证模型,并额外选取3组不同排班方式的被试开展独立验证。结果表明:二谐量的余弦函数可以很好地拟合体温数据,拟合相位为16.88,警觉性昼夜节律参数为-55 ms/℃,上下渐近线分别为750、200 ms,睡眠转换阈值为437 ms;TPMA预测结果与规律作息测试数据拟合优度大于0.90,与实际工作条件下测试数据的拟合优度大于0.81。提出的飞行签派员TPMA具有较好的稳定性和适用性。

In order to solve the problem of alertness prediction of civil aviation flight dispatcher,a TPMA was constructed based on the universal alertness theory,and the data were analyzed by electronic bracelet monitoring and PVT data analysis.Firstly,120 subjects were selected from the dispatchers of major domestic airlines.Temperature data were collected regularly under 40 hours of sleep deprivation,and the subjects was tested with PVT.Then,cosine analysis was used to determine the phase.Key parameters such as upper and lower asymptotes and sleep transition point were determined.Then,sleep inertia process was corrected by early wake-up test.Finally,120 subjects were tested to verify the model,and 3 other groups of subjects with different schedules were selected for independent verification.The results show that cosine function of two harmonics can fit the temperature data well.The phase is 16.88,the parameter is-55 ms/℃,the upper and lower asymptotes are 750 and 200 ms respectively,and the sleep transition point is 437 ms.The goodness of fit between TPMA and regular work test data is greater than 0.90,and the goodness of fit between the model and actual work test data is greater than 0.81.It is proved that the flight dispatcher TPMA has high stability and applicability.