基于改进G2-EWM-TOPSIS模型的引水隧洞塌方风险评价

Collapse Risk Assessment of Diversion Tunnel Based on Improved G2-EWM-TOPSIS Model

滇中引水工程是云南省可持续发展的战略性基础工程,而塌方事故是影响引水工程安全的重要隐患。结合滇中引水工程的实际情况,开展了隧洞塌方风险评价,建立了包含11个代表性指标的隧洞塌方风险评价体系,选用改进G2法及熵权法进行主客观赋权,运用矩估计理论进行组合赋权,构建了改进G2-EWM-TOPSIS模型,运用该模型对滇中工程引水隧洞进行塌方风险评价,得出评价等级。研究表明:该隧洞4个段的塌方评价等级为中风险,5个段的塌方风险评价等级为高风险;该模型计算塌方评价等级与实际等级基本相符,且和云模型相比评价准确度由55.6%提高到88.9%,可用于滇中引水隧洞工程中的塌方风险评价分析,为滇中引水工程施工运营提供理论支持。

Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project is a strategic infrastructure project for sustainable development in Yunnan Province,and collapse accident is an important hidden danger affecting the safety of water diversion project.Combined with the actual situation of Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project,the risk assessment system of tunnel collapse was carried out,and the risk assessment system of tunnel collapse containing 11 representative indicators was established.The improved G2 method and entropy weight method were used for subjective and objective weighting,and the moment estimation theory was used for combined weighting.The improved G2-EMW-TOPSIS model was constructed.The model was used to evaluate the collapse risk of Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project and the evaluation grade was obtained.The research shows that the collapse evaluation grades of the four sections of the tunnel are medium risk,and the collapse risk evaluation grades of the five sections are high risk.The evaluation grades of collapse calculated by this model are basically consistent with the actual grades,and the evaluation accuracy is improved from 55.6 % to 88.9 % compared with the cloud model.It can be used for the evaluation and analysis of collapse risk in Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project,and provide theoretical support for the construction and operation of Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project.